Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $80,000 for the first time in three months, but on-chain data indicates weak network activity and limited buying support.
That lack of broad participation leaves the asset exposed if profit-taking accelerates before fresh demand arrives.
$80K Breakout or Setup?
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit argues bitcoin may be entering the final stage of a bull trap, suggesting the recent strength could be short-lived and precede a sharper decline. His analysis points to an approaching turning point where downside pressure could re-emerge and push BTC lower after this phase.
Despite that warning, Doctor Profit remains long, having entered a position near $71,000. He expects bitcoin to extend toward the $83,000–$85,000 area before momentum shifts. His plan is to take profits on the long and then begin building short positions.
On-chain metrics from Santiment reveal a disconnect between BTC’s price and actual network usage. As the price rose, daily activity failed to follow: roughly 531,000 wallets are transacting daily and about 203,000 new wallets are being created each day—both figures near multi-year lows.
Typically, a sustainable rally features rising wallet creation, more transactions, and broader user engagement. Here, price movement is not matched by increased participation, which Santiment describes as a shortage of “buying fuel.” In other words, the advance appears driven by a narrower group of participants rather than widespread new and returning users.
Bitcoin has gained about 22% over the past five weeks, but without expansion in active addresses or new wallets, the rally lacks substantial fresh demand. If large holders decide to take profits, insufficient fresh buying could leave the market vulnerable to a deeper pullback.
Weak Interest Can Mark a Turning Point
Santiment also notes that low activity does not always guarantee continued weakness. Periods of depressed engagement have historically preceded sharp moves when participation rebounds.
If BTC is already pushing toward $80,000 amid this low activity, an uptick in users—more wallets and higher transaction volumes—could amplify price moves once participation returns, especially if activity climbs toward levels seen in the 2024–2025 peaks.
From a technical standpoint, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a bullish signal on bitcoin’s weekly chart that has begun to play out. A MACD crossover confirmed on April 13 has coincided with an almost 15% price increase so far, and similar crossovers historically led to larger extensions.
Martinez pointed out that MACD crossovers in October 2023 and October 2024 preceded gains of roughly 147% and 75%, respectively, while a May 2025 crossover resulted in about a 35% move. He also identified the 200-day moving average near $83,000 as a key level; a sustained move above that average could open the path to higher price zones.
In summary, Bitcoin’s recent climb above $80,000 highlights a tug-of-war between price momentum and thin on-chain participation. The path forward depends on whether user activity and new demand increase to support the rally, or whether current holders capitalize on gains and trigger a pullback in the absence of broader buying.