Bitcoin’s recent plunge began with a sharp rejection at $82,000, sending the price down to $59,000 on Friday — its lowest level since before the U.S. presidential elections in November 2024.
After such a dramatic decline, Bitcoin has moved into a critical zone where long-term indicators and historical patterns converge. That convergence has prompted debate among analysts over whether the market is approaching a durable bottom or preparing for another leg lower.
The Rainbow Chart
Analyst Crypto Rover recently noted that BTC had fallen below the “rainbow chart,” a long-term valuation model that is rarely breached and typically shows up only during extreme market stress. This is only the second time the chart has been broken in recent history, underlining the severity of the move.
The previous occurrence saw Bitcoin slump toward $15,000 during the 2022 bear market. For many long-term holders, a breach of the rainbow chart signals deeply undervalued conditions and raises the possibility that the market may be near a bottom. Even after the rebound from the $59,000 low, Bitcoin remains below the rainbow bands.
$BTC just fell below the rainbow chart. 🌈
Historically, this has happened 2 times.
• 2022: $15,500
• 2026: $63,000Most Bitcoin OG’s remember this. pic.twitter.com/SkOQrIDXBT
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) June 5, 2026
Another major level under scrutiny is the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), highlighted by analyst CRYPTOWZRD. Historically, the 200-week EMA has acted as a reliable support during bear markets, and in many previous cycles Bitcoin found its low at or near this line.
Bitcoin is currently testing the 200-week EMA. If it holds above this level and regains momentum, the case for a bottom in the low-$60,000 range would grow stronger. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below the EMA would likely pave the way for deeper declines and extend the corrective phase.
Maybe Not Complete?
Analyst Rekt Capital compared the current sell-off to the 2022 bear market and noted a key difference in how far prices have diverged from prior all-time highs. In 2022, BTC fell roughly 22% below its 2017 peak, whereas this cycle has seen a shallower deviation of about 12% below the 2021 all-time high.
“Bitcoin is getting close to a bottom but it’s not there quite yet and there’s still time left,” the analyst concluded.
At present, signals remain mixed. Long-term valuation models and key technical levels point to conditions that could produce a bottom, but confirmation is not yet in place. With volatility still elevated, the market appears to be in a make-or-break phase that may determine the next significant trend for Bitcoin.