“Is Bitcoin signaling a continuation of the bear market or the start of an early bull-market reset?” Fidelity Digital Assets asked on Tuesday. The asset manager pointed out that BTC has been in a death cross for more than 200 days, and the price briefly dipped below the 200-week moving average over the weekend.
“Notably, sustained breaks below this level have historically coincided with forced selling events,” the firm noted, citing 2022 as an example.
Those patterns are also characteristic of final capitulation phases seen during deep bear markets. This current cycle is still relatively young at around eight months. Bitcoin has retraced roughly 50% from its peak so far, while previous bear markets produced deeper declines.
Signs a Bear Market Bottom May Be Forming
Fidelity also highlighted that MVRV (market value to realized value) is moving toward historically undervalued levels as the market approaches the realized price of about $53,600 — the aggregate purchase price of existing coins. The analysts warned this shift could “signal a deeper reset in positioning beneath the surface.”
At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index remains in the “extreme fear” category, although it has not fallen as low as it did in February. That gap suggests sentiment is weak while valuations are compressing, the report said.
“Short-term signals appear to lean bearish—but longer-term indicators are starting to shift,” Fidelity concluded.
Is #bitcoin flashing bear market continuation, or an early bull market reset?
Bitcoin has been in a death cross for 204 days, with price briefly breaking below the 200-week SMA (~$61.8K) June 5–6. Notably, sustained breaks below this level have historically coincided with… pic.twitter.com/w4nleNdPzI
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) June 8, 2026
Analysts at Swissblock said Bitcoin is “deep in capitulation,” with price momentum registering an “extreme negative reading.” They noted momentum needs to recover above -0.5 before structural recovery can begin. Once momentum clears that threshold, “capitulation is beginning to ease, and trend expansion is possible again,” but until then the outlook remains fragile.
10x Research echoed similar views. “The market is unwinding, but BTC is building a base,” their analysts wrote. They pointed to several headwinds: declining Bitcoin dominance, falling stablecoin reserves, and renewed selling pressure from major holders. They also flagged the start of the football World Cup as a potential cycle low for BTC.
“Data supports BTC carving out a base, with higher prices expected through Q3/Q4 … Regulated derivatives infrastructure is expanding. This matters for the next leg up.”
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Bitcoin made a recovery attempt on Monday, reaching about $64,000, but buying momentum faded. The price dropped to an intraday low near $62,500 during Asian trading on Tuesday morning.
Over the past five days the market has begun to consolidate around current levels. Traders and analysts expect BTC could remain in this range for several months, similar to the March–October 2024 consolidation period, as market participants wait for clearer signals before committing to larger positions.