Bitcoin rebounded quickly from its February low near $60,000, delivering gains for two consecutive months. That recovery has led some analysts to argue the cycle’s bottom is already behind us and that BTC is unlikely to drop below $60,000 again.
Other commentators took an even more bullish view, suggesting a larger bull market could be about to begin. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted several key levels that traders should watch as Bitcoin’s next decisive moves unfold.
What to Look For
April’s monthly candle showed Bitcoin produced its biggest 30-day gain in roughly a year, rising nearly 12%. Despite that momentum, price action over a broader timeframe still reflects consolidation between approximately $65,000 and $80,000 that has persisted for several months.
Martinez noted the market has “significant clusters of orders building up,” marking important levels that could trigger larger-scale liquidation events. The principal overhead resistance sits at $80,000 — a ceiling last tested in early February. That zone acts as both a psychological and technical barrier and contains a “massive wall of short-side liquidity.”
If Bitcoin breaks convincingly above $80,000, a swift move toward $84,000 becomes probable. Conversely, if that resistance once again rejects price, BTC could sink back toward lower liquidity pools around $75,000, $73,000, or even $70,000.
“The market is currently in a tug-of-war phase. Watch these levels closely; a decisive daily close outside of this $75,000 – $80,000 range will likely define the trend for the rest of the month,” advised Martinez.
Another analyst known as CW observed that BTC may enter the green zone of the so-called rainbow valuation band within one to two weeks, a threshold they associate with the start of a “real” bull market. According to CW, this cycle has not yet produced a genuine rally, but that could be about to change.
It appears that $BTC will re-enter the green zone within 1-2 weeks.
Enter to a real bull market is very close.
The rally that follows is the real bull rally of this cycle. There has been no real rally in this cycle. pic.twitter.com/69reNt6oZ1
— CW (@CW8900) May 3, 2026
Or Maybe Not
Not everyone shares the optimistic outlook. Analyst Crypto Rover presented a more cautious, bearish interpretation, arguing Bitcoin remains in a bear market and historically has never closed three consecutive months in the green during such periods.
Looking at previous bear-market years — notably 2014, 2018, and 2022 — there were instances of two positive months followed by a sharp rejection in the third month. For example, April 2022 delivered a painful 17% decline. Crypto Rover warned this pattern may repeat, invoking the old market adage “sell in May and go away.”
$BTC HAS NEVER CLOSED 3 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS IN THE GREEN DURING A BEAR MARKET YEAR
(2014, 2018, 2022).
It has NEVER happened.
This time likely won’t be different.
Bearish for Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/8iRfISt95C
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) May 2, 2026
In short, the near-term outlook for Bitcoin is contested. A decisive daily close above or below the current $75,000–$80,000 band will likely set the tone for the remainder of the month: a breakout could accelerate the rally toward higher resistance, while repeated rejection could pull price back into lower liquidity zones. Traders and investors should monitor these levels closely and consider both bullish and bearish scenarios when positioning themselves.