Hyperliquid Price Forecast After Rejection at 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement

  • Hyperliquid price slips 1.2% amid profit-taking and competition from Aster DEX.
  • Upcoming HYPE token unlocks worth $11.9 billion raise short-term supply concerns.
  • Rising open interest and whale buying point to bullish momentum.

The price of Hyperliquid experienced a brief pullback after a significant intraday surge, falling about 1.2% to trade near $46.57.

Despite this short-term decline, HYPE remains up 19.5% over the past week, underscoring continued investor interest and optimism about the project’s longer-term prospects.

The pullback follows a strong rally and reflects a mix of profit-taking, technical rejection, and increasing competition within the decentralized derivatives space.

Competition and profit-taking weigh on sentiment

After a strong run last week, Hyperliquid encountered selling pressure around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $49.36.

The failed breakout prompted traders to lock in gains, producing a short correction.

The MACD histogram is turning negative on the 4-hour chart, indicating waning short-term momentum, while the RSI eased down from overbought territory at 69.89, suggesting the market needed a cooldown after a weekly gain of roughly 19%.

Hyperliquid price analysisSource: CoinMarketCap

Part of the sell-off also reflects growing rivalry between Hyperliquid and the newly launched Binance-backed Aster DEX.

Since its debut on September 17, Aster has attracted enormous trading volumes, processing $20.8 billion on its first day versus $9.7 billion for Hyperliquid.

Aster’s rapid adoption and approximately $2 billion in total value locked within a week have shifted liquidity dynamics in the perpetuals landscape, briefly denting Hyperliquid’s dominance.

Still, Hyperliquid remains a major market presence.

With a market capitalization near $12.74 billion and a total value locked (TVL) of $4.85 billion, it continues to rank among the largest decentralized derivatives platforms.

Nonetheless, traders are watching closely as the project faces near-term headwinds from both external competition and internal supply pressures.

HYPE token unlocks stoke concerns

The most immediate challenge for HYPE is an upcoming token unlock event beginning November 29.

Roughly 237.8 million tokens—about 24% of the total supply—will start unlocking over 24 months.

At current prices, this equates to nearly $500 million of potential selling pressure per month, partially offset by roughly $65 million in monthly treasury buybacks.

That could create a net monthly imbalance of around $410 million, which may trigger short-term volatility as the market adjusts to higher circulating supply.

Despite these worries, the project’s reported $1 billion treasury—linked to the Sonnet Bio and Rorschach merger—could help alleviate dilution fears.

The size and strategic reserves of the treasury give the team room to manage liquidity and preserve market confidence through buybacks or ecosystem growth initiatives.

On-chain data reveals underlying bullish flows

While short-term traders may focus on resistance levels, derivatives and on-chain metrics tell a more optimistic story.

Futures open interest (OI) in HYPE rose from $1.27 billion last Wednesday to $1.97 billion on Monday, the highest level since early October.

Hyperliquid futures open interestSource: Coinglass

Growing open interest suggests fresh capital is entering the market, often a sign of strengthening bullish conviction.

CryptoQuant data also indicates whales—large holders—are increasing their positions, with buy orders dominating spot and futures markets.

This accumulation trend implies that institutional and high-net-worth participants are positioning for further gains.

Network metrics reinforce this bullish sentiment.

According to Artemis Terminal, Hyperliquid’s 24-hour on-chain fee revenue hit $2 million, outpacing edgeX and BNB Chain.

High network fees typically correlate with elevated trading activity and liquidity, signaling robust user engagement even amid short-term market uncertainty.

Key technical levels to watch for Hyperliquid price

Technically, HYPE has shown resilience after breaking above its downtrend line and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $43.54.

Over the weekend it held that level as support before climbing back above $48.57.

If the token closes above the next resistance at $51.15, analysts expect the rally to extend toward the all-time high of $59.46, last seen on September 18.

However, failure to hold above the $43.54 EMA could open the door to a deeper correction toward the $41.60 support zone.