The second-largest cryptocurrency, which saw a strong recovery in mid-April and again at the start of May, has weakened over the past week. Some analysts warn it could decline further, while others urge caution and recommend waiting for a clear breakout before taking positions.
Tread Carefully
At the time of writing, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,280 (CoinGecko), down roughly 4% over the last seven days. Renowned analyst Ali Martinez considers the $2,200–$2,400 band a “no-trade zone,” arguing that only a sustained close outside this range will define the next meaningful directional move.
Users on X have echoed similar concerns. Ted highlighted weak spot demand and suggested ETH will likely underperform as long as it remains below $2,400. Another commentator, CRYPTOWZRD, warned that moving above the $2.4K resistance could trigger an upside leg, while staying below might result in continued random price action.
Several on-chain indicators support a cautious or bearish outlook. ETH held on centralized exchanges has been rising since May 5 and recently approached nearly 15 million coins. Increased exchange reserves often indicate that holders are shifting assets off self-custody and onto platforms where coins are more readily sold, which may heighten immediate selling pressure.
Large holders are also trimming exposure. Martinez reported that whale holdings, which were near 16 million ETH in October 2026, have fallen to under 13 million ETH. Such reductions from significant market participants can undermine confidence and, if accelerated, risk triggering broader selling pressure as smaller investors react.
The Bullish Signs
Despite the risks, there are technical and on-chain developments that point to potential upside if conditions improve.
Earlier this month, Ali Martinez identified a golden cross on Ethereum’s chart—when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. This bullish signal emerged in late April and historically precedes stronger rallies; at the time it hinted at a possible move toward $2,680 should momentum build.
Institutional accumulation adds another constructive element. Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies has been steadily increasing its ETH holdings and now reports ownership of approximately 5.21 million ETH—about 4.3% of the circulating supply and valued at nearly $12 billion at current prices. Continued accumulation by institutional entities can provide a foundation for longer-term support.
In summary, Ethereum’s immediate outlook remains mixed. Key resistance near $2,400 and the rising exchange reserves argue for caution and the possibility of further downside. Conversely, bullish technical setups and ongoing institutional accumulation could fuel a renewed uptrend if price breaks decisively above current ranges. Traders and investors should monitor exchange inflows, whale activity, and whether ETH can clear and hold above the $2,400 level before assuming a sustained directional bias.