Ethereum begins May trading around $2,300 after spending the last week of April consolidating below the $2,400 resistance zone, which has rejected price multiple times. With the Coinbase Premium Index turning negative just as ETH stalled at that resistance, the key question for the new month is whether U.S. institutional demand has genuinely returned or only made a brief appearance before fading.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
The ascending white channel that originated at the February low remains the dominant structure on the daily chart. Its lower boundary sits near $2,000 and has supported every pullback since March. ETH is currently trading just above the 100-day moving average, around $2,200, which has turned into dynamic support.
The daily RSI has cooled from mid-April peaks and now hovers near 50, reflecting the same loss of momentum that affected the broader market as April’s recovery decelerated.
Structurally, the outlook is neutral rather than broken: the bullish thesis requires a daily close above the $2,400 supply zone to regain credibility, which would open a path toward the important $2,800 area and the nearby 200-day moving average.
Conversely, the ascending channel’s lower boundary near $2,000 is the critical downside line. A daily close below that boundary would represent the first meaningful structural damage since the February recovery began and would put the $1,800 demand zone back into focus.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
A falling wedge formed after the mid-April peak near $2,400 and is now in its late compression phase, with converging trendlines squeezing price into a decision zone at current levels. ETH is trading near the wedge’s lower boundary after a bounce, and the 4-hour RSI has recovered modestly from recent lows to about 50, signaling a reset in short-term momentum.
If the wedge breaks to the downside, the horizontal support zone at $2,200 is the next significant floor. Conversely, a clean 4-hour close above the wedge’s upper boundary and through $2,400 would indicate a bullish resolution of the pattern, with a measured move targeting roughly $2,700–$2,800.
Sentiment Analysis
After spending much of April in positive territory—a meaningful shift from the deeply negative readings that accompanied ETH’s drop below $2,000 in February—the Coinbase Premium Index has flipped back to -0.03 as May opens.
The timing is notable: the premium turned positive as price recovered from the lows and U.S. buyers re-engaged, but it has reversed precisely as ETH stalled at the $2,400 resistance zone again. This behavior suggests U.S. institutional demand showed up at the lows and faded at resistance, consistent with cautious accumulation rather than conviction buying that would force a breakout.
Macro factors reinforce this cautious stance. U.S. investors are entering May amid tariff policy uncertainty, a still-restrictive Federal Reserve, and intermittent equity market volatility—conditions that typically deter institutional capital from higher-beta assets such as Ethereum.
That said, the current premium of -0.03 is a far cry from February’s lows near -0.20. If the macro backdrop stabilizes, a return to positive premium territory is possible, which could help fuel a breakout above $2,400 and a more robust recovery in the weeks ahead.