Ethereum trades around $2,120 as the final week of May begins, locked in a tug-of-war with the 100-day moving average that highlights the uncertainty of this cycle.
After briefly reclaiming the 100-day MA in late April—the first time since the correction began—ETH lost it again during the May breakdown and is now trading just below that level. The moving average sits close enough that a single strong daily close could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls, but current momentum has not been sufficient to achieve that.
The next few days will be critical: a successful reclaim could stabilize the rebound, while renewed weakness would put the key $1,800 demand zone back into focus.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, ETH’s brief reclaim of the declining 100-day moving average in late April was short-lived; the May sell-off pushed price back beneath it. The market now trades just under $2.1K, with the 100-day MA positioned slightly overhead and acting as resistance rather than support.
RSI recovered from last week’s low near 30 to about 40, a modest bounce that still lacks clear directional conviction. The situation has shifted in a meaningful way: the 100-day MA is no longer a distant target but sits within reach, making daily closes around $2.1K an ongoing battle for control.
A sustained daily close above the moving average and the $2.2K level would confirm a reclaim and return structure toward neutral. Conversely, a decisive close below $2,000 would break the ascending channel’s lower boundary and leave $1.8K as the next structural support level, prompting a full reassessment of the recovery narrative.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows price compressing into a tightening range between the $2K support zone and the $2.15K resistance area. The RSI has recovered from oversold readings to just above 50, which helps stabilize the market but has not yet produced clear upward momentum.
The ascending channel’s lower boundary around $2.08K converges with the bottom of the $2.15K resistance band, making that zone the last technical defense before $1.8K. The first meaningful target above is the $2.25K area, which had acted as support through much of April and early May before the breakdown.
A 4-hour close back above $2.25K would suggest the worst of the selling pressure has passed and would open a path toward $2.4K. Until that happens, the tight range between $2.15K and $2K is likely to persist as traders await a catalyst in either direction.
Sentiment Analysis
Funding rates for ETH have been predominantly positive for much of the corrective phase, with only brief negative spikes instead of a sustained dominance of negative funding. The notable exception was late April, when funding turned largely negative for an extended period as price repeatedly stalled at $2.4K before breaking down.
That negative phase has since dissipated. Funding has returned to positive territory and has recently produced some of the higher green readings seen over the past two to three months. The current reading of approximately +0.005 sits near the upper range of what has been a relatively muted band.
The timing of this shift is important. Funding skewing positive while price sits near $2.1K—closer to recent multi-month lows than to resistance—indicates new longs are accumulating at these levels with conviction rather than chasing breakouts. Structurally, this is healthier: longs are building nearer to support rather than piling in at resistance.
Whether that accumulation pays off depends on price holding the $2K channel floor and reclaiming the 100-day moving average. If those conditions are met, the recovery thesis remains viable; failure would force a reassessment with $1.8K becoming the primary support level to watch.
