Ethereum is trading around $2,100, and the price action suggests that three months of cautious optimism can no longer mask underlying weakness. The ascending channel that supported bullish arguments since the February low is now breaking to the downside.
Additionally, the US institutional bid that helped the recovery through March and April has withdrawn, with sentiment measures sliding to their most negative reading since the capitulation lows. As a result, ETH appears not just to be retracing—it is breaking down structurally.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
The ascending daily channel established from the February low is failing. ETH has closed below the channel’s lower boundary for the first time since the recovery began, and the 100-day moving average—previously near $2,200—has been lost on a daily close. The daily RSI has fallen below 40, its weakest reading since February’s capitulation, and shows no clear sign of a momentum floor forming yet.
The $1,800 demand zone remains the primary downside reference, having held as the absolute floor during February’s sell-off. On the upside, the lost 100-day moving average around $2,200 now serves as immediate resistance. A sustained daily close back above $2,200 is the minimum condition that would suggest the breakdown is a fakeout rather than a genuine structural shift.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour timeframe, an inner symmetrical triangle has resolved to the downside, taking the $2,200 support zone with it. That level had previously held on two occasions. Price now rests near the lower zone at $2,050–$2,100, which aligns closely with the daily ascending channel’s lower boundary.
The 4-hour RSI has bounced modestly from oversold levels reached during the sharpest leg of the sell-off and is recovering into the 40s. This bounce should be treated cautiously as a potential dead-cat bounce until price action proves otherwise.
The $2,000–$2,100 area is the last meaningful support before $1,800. A 4-hour close below this range would remove the final technical argument for the ascending channel structure and open a direct path to the $1,800 demand zone below.
Conversely, a sustained hold here and a prompt recovery back above $2,200 would be the first sign the breakdown is being absorbed. Given the momentum behind the current move, however, any recovery would need to occur quickly to change the technical picture.
Sentiment Analysis
The Coinbase Premium Index has dropped to -0.09, the deepest negative reading since February’s capitulation low and a sharp reversal from the modestly positive readings seen in March and April. US buyers participated during the recovery (+0.02 to +0.08), stepped back near $2,400 resistance (premium faded to zero in early May), and have now actively retreated as the breakdown accelerated (-0.09).
The -0.09 reading has not yet reached the -0.20 extreme seen at the February bottom, which means US institutional selling could intensify further if price continues lower. What this reading makes clear is that the cohort of buyers who provided a demand floor during the recovery are not defending current levels; they are either absent or net sellers.
Without the Coinbase premium returning to sustained positive territory, any bounce from the $2,050–$2,100 support range is likely to be sold rather than built upon. The structural requirement for a credible recovery is a reclaim of $2,200 combined with a positive Coinbase premium. Unless that occurs, the bullish case lacks a solid foundation.