Ethereum staged a notable recovery after plunging toward the $1,500 region. While this rebound has improved short-term sentiment, the broader structure remains bearish across higher timeframes. ETH is still trading below key moving averages and beneath a long-term descending trendline. The coming sessions will likely determine whether this move becomes a sustainable recovery or remains a temporary relief rally within a larger downtrend.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, ETH remains under substantial technical pressure despite the bounce from the $1,500 support zone. Price briefly dipped below that critical demand area before buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the $1,700 region.
The prevailing market structure still favors sellers. Ethereum trades below the 100-day moving average near $2,100 and the 200-day moving average around $2,400, signaling that the longer-term trend remains firmly bearish. In addition, the long-term descending trendline drawn from prior highs continues to cap upside attempts and reinforces downward pressure.
The latest leg of selling formed a clear bearish impulse, and Fibonacci retracement levels now highlight potential recovery targets where sellers could re-emerge. The first significant resistance is the 0.5 retracement around $1,770, followed by the 0.618 level near $1,830 and the 0.786 retracement at roughly $1,920.
These Fibonacci levels are likely to act as rejection zones if sellers retain control of the broader trend. While the current rebound could extend toward this resistance cluster, traders should monitor price action closely around these levels, as they may offer attractive opportunities for renewed supply and another leg lower.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
On shorter timeframes the outlook is more constructive. After capitulating into the $1,500 low, ETH staged a strong reactionary bounce and is finding support at a bullish fair value gap around the $1,640 area.
This zone is acting as an immediate demand area and could hold during a short-term pullback. The recovery has also pushed the RSI above its midpoint, indicating improving momentum after the aggressive selloff.
Nevertheless, the market still faces a key Fibonacci resistance cluster between $1,750 and $1,850. This range now represents the primary liquidity zone where sellers may try to regain control. A move toward that area remains possible as long as ETH stays above the bullish fair value gap.
If buyers sustain momentum and reclaim $1,770, a larger short-squeeze could unfold, targeting $1,830 and $1,920. Conversely, losing the fair value gap support around $1,640 would weaken the recovery structure and increase the likelihood of another test of the $1,500 low.
Sentiment Analysis
The Coinbase Premium Index offers additional perspective on market sentiment by measuring the price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges; it is often used as a proxy for U.S. institutional demand.
The index has spent much of the recent period in negative territory, aligned with Ethereum’s extended decline from $5,000 to the current cycle lows. The latest reading remains below zero at about -0.04, indicating that U.S. spot demand is still relatively weak.
That said, the index has rebounded sharply from extreme negative readings near -0.15. Historically, such deeply negative premium levels appear during capitulation and heavy selling. The recent improvement suggests selling intensity may be easing, even if substantial accumulation has not yet returned.
For a more durable bullish reversal, the Coinbase Premium Index would ideally move into and remain in positive territory. Until that happens, the data suggest this bounce is driven more by relief from oversold conditions than by decisive institutional accumulation.