- Analysts see a drop to $3,560 or bullish targets up to $20,000 after Ethereum plunged 15% on Monday.
- Institutional inflows and rate cut expectations from the Fed support a longer-term bullish outlook.
- $4,000 remains a key level as bulls and bears fight for control.
Ethereum plunged in a sharp Monday sell-off that wiped out many leveraged long positions and rattled traders.
ETH, however, staged a modest rebound from the intraday lows. CoinGecko showed ETH trading near $4,197, with a 24-hour range roughly between $4,125 and $4,220 at the time of writing.
Crash and carnage: $1.5 billion in liquidations
On Monday, Ethereum (ETH) fell about 15% alongside other major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin (BTC), triggering roughly $1.5 billion in liquidations — the largest single liquidation event in six months.
BIGGEST LIQUIDATION CASCADE EVER
OVER $1B IN LONGS WIPED OUT IN A SINGLE HOUR
THE REAL BLOODBATH 🩸 pic.twitter.com/3MPOw56O48
— AlΞx Wacy 🌐 (@wacy_time1) September 22, 2025
The sudden drop forced many leveraged longs to close and pushed ETH toward the psychological support area around $4,000.
The sell-off came even as institutional demand continued. BlackRock’s spot ETH ETF saw roughly $512 million of inflows during the same sell-off, highlighting the divergence between retail pressure and institutional accumulation.
Technical focus: $4,000 is the line in the sand
From a technical standpoint, the market looks fragile. ETH recently broke down from a symmetric triangle, a move that projects a measured decline toward roughly $3,560 if selling persists.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified $3,550–$3,750 as a likely support zone and noted the 20-week EMA sits near $3,685.
I think that we’ll see some more chop occur on $ETH.
I don’t know whether we’ll dip as deep as $3,550-3,750, but I’m sure that we’ll start to see:
– 20-Week MA is getting closer.
– Compression is building up –> Big move to occur at a later time.It’s now down nearly 20% from… pic.twitter.com/MUvUEYY4Xv
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 23, 2025
Near-term resistance clusters between about $4,220 and $4,360.
Below that, traders are watching $4,120, $4,050 and the critical $4,000 level.
A decisive break under these supports could accelerate a drop toward roughly $3,800.
Conversely, a clean bounce and a decisive close above the 50-day EMA near $4,250 would improve the odds of a sustained recovery.
Another concerning pattern is a descending triangle that formed after August’s peak near $4,956.
That structure leaves $4,070 as a make-or-break pivot. If $4,070 holds, the path toward retesting $5,000 reopens; if it fails, a drop to $3,800 becomes more likely.
The bullish case: ETFs, M2 chart and five-figure targets
On the bullish side, several analysts and macro studies argue that the current weakness could set the stage for aggressive gains.
Ted Pillows applied a Global M2 money supply chart to Ethereum and proposed a scenario that could place ETH between $18,000 and $20,000 by the 2026 cycle top.
Global M2 supply is now projecting $18,000-$20,000 ETH by cycle top.
Even if $ETH pulls half of that, it’ll trade above $10,000.
I’m still long-term bullish on Ethereum and think that a sweep of the $4,000 liquidity zone could happen before reversal. pic.twitter.com/w6ZZl0OuPI
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 21, 2025
Other market voices offer more modest but still notable rallies.
Daan de Rover and Mark Newton from Fundstrat highlight a $5,500 target, with Newton adding that ETH is unlikely to drop far below $4,000.
Institutional commitments have reinforced this sentiment; combined flows from major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity have reached hundreds of millions, a dynamic many analysts see as supportive of price appreciation over time.
Additionally, some chart analysts point to possible Wyckoff-style accumulation patterns and setups that could push ETH toward $7,000 if a spring and testing sequence plays out.
Michaël van de Poppe also argues that compression is building and that dips near current levels represent attractive accumulation opportunities for long-term buyers.
What traders should watch
Key items to monitor are liquidity below $4,000, ongoing ETF flows, and whether the 50-day EMA around $4,250 is reclaimed.
Ethereum stands at a crossroads. The near-term outlook is binary: stay above $4,000 and bulls can pursue higher targets; lose that floor and the technical setup points to a deeper correction toward the mid-$3,000s.
Over the longer term, strong institutional flows, trends around tokenization, and macro easing arguments provide clear bullish cases — some analysts even note five-figure targets in peak scenarios.
Traders and investors should watch liquidity, ETF flows, and moving-average confirmations to determine which path unfolds next.