- Analysts see a drop to USD 3,560 or bullish targets up to USD 20,000 after Ethereum plunged 15% on Monday.
- However, institutional inflows and potential Fed easing support a long-term bullish outlook.
- USD 4,000 remains the key level as bulls and bears fight for control.
Ethereum’s price collapsed in a violent sell-off on Monday, wiping out many leveraged long positions and rattling traders.
Since then, ETH has staged a modest recovery. CoinGecko shows ETH trading around USD 4,197, with a 24-hour range near USD 4,125 to USD 4,220 at the time of publication.
Crash and carnage: $1.5 billion in liquidations
On Monday, Ethereum (ETH) fell roughly 15% alongside other major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), triggering about USD 1.5 billion in liquidations — the largest single-day event in six months.
BIGGEST LIQUIDATION CASCADE EVER
OVER $1B IN LONGS WIPED OUT IN A SINGLE HOUR
THE REAL BLOODBATH 🩸 pic.twitter.com/3MPOw56O48
— AlΞx Wacy 🌐 (@wacy_time1) September 22, 2025
The sudden slide forced the closure of numerous leveraged long positions and pushed ETH toward a key psychological floor near USD 4,000.
The sell-off occurred even as institutional demand continued to flow into the market.
BlackRock’s spot ETH ETF recorded roughly USD 512 million of inflows during the same liquidation, highlighting a split between retail selling pressure and institutional accumulation.
Technical focus: $4,000 is the line in the sand
From a technical standpoint, the market looks fragile. ETH recently broke a symmetrical triangle, a move that implies a measured downside target near USD 3,560 if selling persists.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified the USD 3,550–3,750 zone as likely support and noted the 20-week EMA sits near USD 3,685.
I think that we’ll see some more chop occur on $ETH.
I don’t know whether we’ll dip as deep as $3,550-3,750, but I’m sure that we’ll start to see:
– 20-Week MA is getting closer.
– Compression is building up –> Big move to occur at a later time.It’s now down nearly 20% from… pic.twitter.com/MUvUEYY4Xv
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 23, 2025
Short-term resistance bands now cluster roughly between USD 4,220 and USD 4,360.
Below that, traders are watching USD 4,120, USD 4,050 and the critical USD 4,000 level.
A decisive break under those supports could accelerate a slide toward roughly USD 3,800.
Conversely, a clean rebound and a decisive close above the 50-day EMA near USD 4,250 would increase the odds of a sustained recovery.
Another technical concern is a descending triangle that formed after the August peak near USD 4,956.
That structure keeps USD 4,070 as a decisive pivot.
If USD 4,070 holds, the path reopens for another test of USD 5,000; if it fails, a drop toward USD 3,800 becomes more probable.
Bull case: ETFs, M2 chart and five-figure targets
On the bullish side, several analysts and macro studies argue that today’s weakness could set the stage for aggressive gains.
Ted Pillows applied the global M2 money supply chart to Ethereum and suggested a scenario that places ETH between USD 18,000 and USD 20,000 by the cycle top in 2026.
Global M2 supply is now projecting $18,000-$20,000 ETH by cycle top.
Even if $ETH pulls half of that, it’ll trade above $10,000.
I’m still long-term bullish on Ethereum and think that a sweep of the $4,000 liquidity zone could happen before reversal. pic.twitter.com/w6ZZl0OuPI
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 21, 2025
Other market voices support more modest but still significant rallies.
Daan de Rover and Mark Newton of Fundstrat highlight a USD 5,500 target, and Newton adds that ETH is unlikely to fall far below USD 4,000.
Institutional commitments have strengthened that sentiment; combined flows from large managers like BlackRock and Fidelity have reached hundreds of millions, a dynamic many analysts say supports higher prices over time.
Some traders point to Wyckoff accumulation scenarios and chart setups that could propel ETH toward USD 7,000 if a spring-and-test sequence unfolds.
Michaël van de Poppe himself argues compression is building and that dips around current levels present attractive accumulation opportunities for long-term buyers.
What traders should watch
Key data points to monitor are liquidity below USD 4,000, ETF inflows, and whether the 50-day EMA around USD 4,250 is reclaimed.
Ethereum stands at a crossroads. The near term is effectively binary: stay above USD 4,000 and bulls can chase higher targets; lose that floor and technical setups point to a deeper correction into the mid-USD 3,000s.
Long-term bullish arguments remain intact: strong institutional flows, tokenization trends and potential macro easing all support higher prices, with some analysts projecting five-figure outcomes over the cycle.
Traders and investors should track liquidity, ETF flows and moving average confirmations to determine which path unfolds next.