Ethereum Price at Crossroads: Key $3,800 Support Tested, Analysts Eye Potential Rebound

  • Ethereum ETF inflows indicate smart money buying despite short-term weakness.
  • Whales are reducing holdings while mid-size “sharks” drive accumulation.
  • Heavy ETH liquidations have fueled bearish sentiment.

Ethereum (ETH) sits at a critical juncture as price tests support near $3,800 following a sharp pullback from recent highs.

Analysts are weighing technical damage against on-chain signals that point in different directions.

Ethereum price under bearish pressure

ETH recently fell below $4,000 and is now trading around the mid-$3,800s.

Over the past 24 hours intraday swings ranged between $3,833.75 and $4,051.26, while analysts identify $3,800–$3,850 as the immediate defense zone and $3,500–$3,400 as deeper liquidity areas if sellers push further.

Notably, Ethereum’s price has slipped below the clustered 20-, 50- and 100-period EMAs, currently roughly between $4,083 and $4,238, which are now acting as resistance.

Momentum indicators have also weakened, with the four-hour RSI near 29, indicating oversold conditions that often precede short-lived relief rallies.

Whales unloading while sharks accumulate

On-chain flow metrics show notable exchange inflows, with a new peak of about $66.7 million moved into spot venues.

That flow coincided with ETH dropping below $4,000 and signals some holders are routing coins to exchanges to sell.

Large wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH have reduced positions significantly — a development many analysts interpret as increased selling from the largest holders.

Meanwhile, mid-size entities — addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH — are accumulating and taking a more prominent role in the on-chain ownership dynamic, as highlighted by Joao Wedson.

This shift of supply from the very largest wallets to a concentrated group of mid-size “sharks” has pushed the Gini coefficient higher after months of decline, underscoring renewed concentration among wealthier addresses.

The number of Ethereum whales is dropping sharply – and the sharks are now in the game!

It’s the sharks (10k–100k ETH holders) who have been accumulating and taking a larger share of the market.

Meanwhile, the Gini coefficient has stopped falling and is starting to rise again,… pic.twitter.com/Lk2E6saulJ

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) September 24, 2025

Although some view these movements as dynamic, others see a double-edged sword: they reduce a class of oversized sellers but raise concentration risk.

Liquidations spoil the party as ETFs attract hyped inflows

Ethereum’s correction has triggered heavy market liquidations, with roughly $409 million in long ETH positions wiped out.

Funding rates on ETH futures have also flashed negative recently, contributing to short-term selling pressure.

Institutional flows, particularly around Ethereum ETFs, present a mixed picture, with some funds recording large inflows while others see sizable outflows.

Notably, over the past week more than $560 million reportedly moved into ETH-linked funds, with BlackRock-led products among the largest recipients, even as REX-Osprey launched the first U.S. Ether ETF.

Price outlook for Ethereum

Views among market commentators diverge sharply. Long-term bulls like Ted Pillows argue ETH could ultimately trend well above $10,000 this cycle, though he expects a near-term retest in the $3,600–$3,800 area.

$ETH is going above $10,000 this cycle.

But before that, a correction will happen, and right now, it’s happening.

I think ETH could drop towards the $3,600-$3,800 level before a reversal and a new ATH. pic.twitter.com/Yy87rjHVAB

— Ted (@TedPillows) September 23, 2025

Crucially, reclaiming the $4,083–$4,330 zone would relieve bearish pressure and could open a path back toward $5,000.

Conversely, failure to hold key support would expose lower bands at $3,162 and $2,874, while the 200-day EMA sits as a structural defense near $3,350.