Ethereum is trading around $2,320 as the first weekend of May progresses, remaining trapped in the same technical stalemate it has occupied for the past three weeks. The coin repeatedly presses against the $2,400 resistance zone but lacks the conviction to break higher, while also avoiding a decisive collapse beneath the ascending channel that has supported the recovery since February.
What is changing, however, is the on-chain backdrop. Exchange reserves have fallen to fresh lows as supply is quietly withdrawn from exchanges, a development that could matter once price action gains momentum.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, ETH is testing the area around the declining 100-day moving average from above, which currently sits near $2,200. The RSI hovers near 55, signaling a market without strong momentum in either direction. The ascending channel that began at the February low remains intact, with its lower boundary providing support near $2,000.
The $2,400 supply zone above remains the primary level that would change the narrative. A daily close above that zone would represent a horizontal resistance break and likely lead to a retest of the 200-day moving average around $2,700. Such a breakout would open the path toward the critical $2,800 supply zone. Conversely, failure to hold above $2,200 and the 100-day MA on the next pullback would threaten the channel structure and shift focus to the $1,800 demand area.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, the falling wedge that formed after the mid-April high near $2,400 is tightening. Price now sits just below the wedge’s upper boundary, around $2,350, and is approaching it again. The RSI has recovered above 50 on this timeframe but has not produced a decisive directional signal.
The $2,400 resistance zone has capped every recent attempt to push higher and remains the immediate ceiling. A close above that level would resolve the wedge bullishly and target the larger channel’s upper boundary near $2,500. On the downside, a break below the wedge and the recent low near $2,200 would invalidate the pattern and could lead to a test of the ascending channel’s lower trendline near $2,100.
On-Chain Analysis
Ethereum’s exchange reserves have fallen to roughly 14.5 million ETH, the lowest level in the available dataset. At their recent peak, exchanges held more than 21 million ETH; that number has steadily declined through the bull market and subsequent correction. Over the past four months, more than 1.5 million ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges, and the pace of withdrawals appears to be accelerating.
The structural implication is notable: with less ETH held on exchanges than at any recent point, the liquid sell-side supply that typically caps rallies is shrinking. That alone does not guarantee an immediate breakout above $2,400, because buyers still need to step in. However, when buyers do act decisively, they will confront a thinner order book than earlier in the cycle. The divergence between steadily falling reserves and a price stuck below resistance often precedes a sharp resolution once a technical catalyst appears.
For now, the market remains rangebound between the critical $2,400 resistance above and the ascending channel support below. A decisive daily close above $2,400 or a failure to hold ~$2,200 will likely determine the next meaningful move in price.