Ethereum (ETH) stands at a pivotal crossroads that, according to a well-known analyst, could determine the next major phase for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
This commentary comes as ETH slipped nearly 4% in 24 hours, failing to hold the $2,400 area amid increasing pressure from short sellers betting against a near-term recovery.
What the Weekly Chart Is Showing
Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO posted a detailed breakdown on X on Thursday, arguing that ETH has spent a prolonged period compressing within what he calls a “massive Ascending Triangle structure” on the weekly timeframe.
The asset continues to respect the so-called macro “ETH Line,” a long-standing support level that has anchored the chart for years.
In the near term, the setup is binary: a breakdown from the current structure points toward $1,600, which EGRAG labeled the “structural failure zone,” while a successful breakout would target $4,800 as the initial trigger level.
They also mentioned a much larger upside scenario of $33,000 if exuberant market conditions return, but their near-term focus remains on the tug-of-war between support and resistance.
“$4,800 = breakout trigger. $1,600 = structural failure zone. ETH is approaching decision time,” they wrote.
The market is currently in an uneasy holding pattern. Trader Ted Pillows noted that ETH has repeatedly failed to sustain levels above $2,400 and that spot demand remains weak.
“Until that changes, ETH will continue to underperform the market,” he said.
That view aligns with on-chain positioning highlighted by analyst CW8900, who observed that high-leverage long positions have declined noticeably while short interest has inched upward.
CW8900 pointed out a cluster of short positions between current prices and $2,500; a decisive break above that zone could prompt a quick move toward $3,000.
Why the Backdrop Looks More Bullish Than Price Alone Suggests
Several on-chain signals beyond price action suggest ETH’s recent weakness might be temporary.
A CryptoOnchain report on Tuesday recorded a sharp rise in Ethereum staking inflows, with the seven-day average increasing from roughly 28,200 to nearly 144,000 by May 5. That inflow removes more ETH from liquid circulation and could reduce selling pressure if demand remains steady.
Analyst Ali Martinez also noted that ETH rallied more than 30% after a SuperTrend buy signal appeared in mid-March. That rally brought the price to the Realized Price level, around $2,380—the average price at which all ETH last moved on-chain. Sustained trading above the Realized Price would move many holders from unrealized loss to profit, a transition that historically eases selling pressure.
Martinez identified $2,772 and $2,921 as the next meaningful supply concentration levels above the Realized Price.
After briefly touching $2,400 yesterday, Ethereum fell back toward $2,300 at the time of writing. Despite that retreat, ETH remains about 11% higher over the past month and roughly 27% up year-to-date.