The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH), has clearly been underperforming in recent weeks. Multiple breakout attempts stalled around $2,400, and subsequent rejections have driven the price lower. Most concerning, today’s decline pushed ETH below the key $2,200 support level, while its performance versus Bitcoin is even weaker.
The ETH/BTC pair recently fell to a 10-month low under 0.028 BTC. By comparison, ETH traded above 0.042 BTC in September of last year, shortly after its all-time high versus the US dollar, but has largely trended downward since then. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted this drop, noting it occurred even as Tom Lee’s BitMine reportedly continues to spend millions each week accumulating more ETH.
ETH/BTC has hit a new yearly low.
This is despite Tom Lee buying $200M+ in $ETH every week. pic.twitter.com/PpNyUcgACp
— Ted (@TedPillows) May 16, 2026
ETH Flows to Exchanges
Data shared by Ali Martinez, citing CryptoQuant, shows another potential source of downward pressure: more than 500,000 ETH were transferred to exchanges over the past week. At current prices, that amount represents a stash valued at over $1.1 billion. Large inflows to trading venues often precede selling, since traders typically move assets to exchanges when they intend to liquidate.
Martinez also flagged the TD Sequential indicator, which traders use to identify potential exhaustion points in a trend. That tool recently flashed a sell signal for ETH, suggesting the market could be on the verge of a larger pullback. In a worst-case scenario outlined by analysts, a deeper correction could push ETH toward $1,100.
Potential Upside and On-Chain Activity
On the other side of the debate, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Satoshi Flipper pointed out that ETH is testing the diagonal support at the lower boundary of an ascending triangle pattern on the 8-hour chart, which could act as a bounce point if buying interest returns.
Meanwhile, on-chain investigator Lookonchain noted renewed activity from an early Ethereum investor. This unnamed holder originally acquired over 11,000 ETH at prices below $3.50 more than a decade ago, sold a portion for over $30 million last year, and has now resumed buying.
According to the on-chain analytics update, that investor used $4.3 million in USDC to purchase 1,951 ETH at prices near $2,180 per token. Such activity from long-term holders can signal confidence and potentially limit downside if more historical investors follow suit.
In summary, Ethereum faces mixed signals: technical indicators and large exchange inflows point toward further downside risk, while support at a key chart boundary and renewed accumulation by long-term holders offer reasons for cautious optimism. Traders should monitor on-chain flows, key support levels like $2,200, and the behavior of ETH against Bitcoin to better assess the likely path forward.