In mid-May it was hard to foresee how sharply the cryptocurrency market would deteriorate over the following three weeks. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since November 2024, Ethereum plunged to a 14-month low, and XRP slipped beneath key support levels, hitting a 19-month low under $1.10 on Friday.
The pressing question now is whether XRP’s last defense above the psychological $1.00 level will hold, or if the cross-border token is set to tumble further into the cents range.
What Happens If Bears Take Full Control?
A recent analysis using a popular AI model suggested that the most realistic near-term bearish target for XRP is $0.90 if the price breaks below $1.00, a scenario that looks increasingly plausible amid current market conditions. For context, Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 earlier today, marking its lowest level since before the U.S. elections in late 2024.
XRP also reached its weakest price since those tumultuous November 2024 days and currently trades below $1.10. After breaching its last major support, the $1.00 level has become the primary focus; a renewed sell-off could push the token down to test that threshold soon.
If XRP falls to $0.90, that would represent roughly an 18%–20% decline and would likely coincide with ongoing weakness across the broader crypto market, the AI noted.
The model also highlighted deeper downside scenarios if bullish momentum evaporates entirely, including a drop to the $0.75–$0.80 range.
In a more extreme “capitulation” outcome, XRP could fall as low as $0.60, though the AI characterized this as a low-probability event.
“For XRP to collapse that far, investors would likely need to face a combination of macroeconomic turmoil, a broader crypto bear market, and the disappearance of key bullish narratives such as ETF optimism and institutional adoption,” the AI analysis observed.
Could a Violent Rebound Follow?
The AI also presented an alternate, more optimistic scenario: XRP may be nearing a point where conditions become favorable for a relief rally. Drawing on historical patterns—particularly past Junes around U.S. midterm election cycles—the model noted that deep pessimism has sometimes preceded significant recoveries.
Accordingly, a swift rebound to $1.25 and even to $1.40 is possible if buyers successfully defend the $1.05–$1.10 support zone in the coming days or hours. Whether that defense holds will likely determine whether XRP resumes a recovery or continues its decline.