Aside from a few notable but brief upticks during the late 2024 and early 2025 rally, Cardano’s native token has largely underperformed throughout the latest market cycle.
While many large-cap altcoins and the market leader managed to surpass their previous all-time highs last year, ADA lagged far behind. Since its peak in 2021, the token has fallen more than 90% from that record level. It also dropped out of the top 10 altcoins by market capitalization, falling to 15th on CoinGecko.
Despite these setbacks, popular analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that ADA has held a key support level that historically triggered substantial price rallies, including one rally that exceeded 200%.
Could ADA Rally 240%?
The critical support level identified by the analyst is $0.25. In early 2023, ADA rebounded decisively from that level after a major correction, climbing roughly 85% in a relatively short span. Even more impressive was the September 2023 rebound, which produced a 243% rally following a successful bounce from the same support.
Martinez observed that ADA remains above the $0.25 floor now, trading around $0.27 after being rejected at $0.30 earlier in the week. His short-term target is $0.36, while the secondary, more macro target is $0.53 — levels the token has not reached in over six months.
$0.25 is a critical support level for Cardano!
In my analysis of the monthly chart, this floor has acted as a launchpad for significant rebounds on two major occasions:
• January 2023: $ADA bounced off $0.25, resulting in a 88.27% rally over the following weeks.
• September… pic.twitter.com/COknFMkG3H— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 9, 2026
No Immediate Downside Pressure
Another analyst, CW, commented on how traders are positioning in ADA futures markets. CW reported a notable increase in net buying of long positions, which correlated with a modest price uptick for the token.
According to CW, upward momentum appears intact and there are no clear signs of downside pressure at present.
$ADA rose following net buying of long positions.
And the upward momentum is being maintained. There is no downside pressure yet. https://t.co/5iURKjSxNH pic.twitter.com/rpk8QEH4AZ
— CW (@CW8900) May 9, 2026