What stands out about Bitcoin’s gains today is that they have arrived despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to highs of $41,680 on Monday amid renewed buying pressure across crypto markets.
The rally extended to major altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) rose about 7% and traded above $2,800, while Solana (SOL) and Terra (LUNA) both climbed more than 14%.
The total crypto market capitalization increased 7.4% to $1.93 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market cap rising to $793 billion.
Russia-Ukraine crisis shines a spotlight on BTC
At present, BTC has been temporarily uncorrelated with Wall Street and has traded more like gold than a typical risk-on asset observed in recent months.
Macroeconomic headwinds that have weighed on Bitcoin remain in place. Continued uncertainty around the war in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate plans are likely to keep shaping investor sentiment in the short to medium term.
However, Natalie Brunell, host of the Coin Stories Bitcoin Podcast, says the Ukraine conflict has clarified Bitcoin’s role for the global community. She told Fox Business:
“The global monetary system is cracking, and #Bitcoin has emerged as a pure savings and freedom technology—borderless, permissionless, censorship-resistant, and non-confiscatable. The Russia-Ukraine crisis highlights this.“
Bitcoin donation flows and price outlook
Brunell’s remarks come as Bitcoin donations to Ukraine have surged and crypto trading volumes in rubles have increased amid weakness in the Russian currency.
Regarding whether BTC can sustain the recent upside or hold on to gains, Dylan LeClair, senior analyst at a digital-asset investment firm at UXTO Management, views the scenario as likely.
LeClair attributes Bitcoin’s recent rise to a growing set of “diamond hands”—long-term holders reluctant to sell. He cites on-chain data showing that more than 80% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved year-to-date.
“Only 15.5% of #bitcoins’ circulating supply has moved during 2022 despite rising levels of macroeconomic uncertainty. HODLers remain entirely unmoved. Quite remarkable when you think about it,” LeClair tweeted on Monday.
$42,000 and $46,000 mark key resistance levels
Trader and investor Scott Melker said he wants to see BTC break above $42,000 and maintain momentum beyond that level to open the path for further gains.
$BTC
Right back to the 42K area, the level that Bitcoin has found its way back to repeatedly for over a year. pic.twitter.com/NoDTZZ5ufn
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) February 28, 2022
According to pseudonymous analyst Altcoin Sherpa, if BTC reaches the mid-February high around $46,000, investors may want to watch for a potential “market structure shift.”
Unlike last week, when Bitcoin fell alongside equities, this week’s upside has come as the S&P 500 and broader stock market moved toward another negative close.
Bitcoin is nearly 10% higher, up to $41,665, while the S&P 500 finished February down about 0.3%.