During the recent market sell-off, several major crypto assets fell into historic “buy zones,” according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, which based its assessment on the 30-day MVRV metric. That indicator, familiar from past cycles, signaled areas where buyers who entered within the last month were, on average, at a loss.
Santiment added that early signs of a relief rally were already appearing across many of the flagged assets, suggesting the immediate selling pressure may be easing.
What the MVRV Data Is Showing
Santiment’s 30-day MVRV measures the average profit or loss of traders who opened positions in the last month. The principle is straightforward: when the average is deeply negative, most recent buyers are sitting on losses, and the selling pressure that typically follows tends to eventually exhaust itself.
The firm describes the exhaustion point as the moment when “weak hands capitulate, and long-term investors begin accumulating.” During the freefall between mid-May and early June, five major assets all registered negative 30-day MVRV readings simultaneously. Bitcoin (BTC) was around -10%, Ethereum (ETH) near -12%, and XRP about -8%—readings Santiment classified as falling into a “fair buy” zone.
Chainlink (LINK) and Cardano (ADA) also showed negative 30-day MVRV values, with ADA at roughly -18%, placing it in what the firm called a “strong buy” zone. Santiment noted that many of these assets had already started rebounding after entering these zones, reinforcing a pattern observed in multiple past market cycles.
However, Santiment cautioned that no single indicator guarantees immediate gains. Still, the recent bounce implied that the losses facing average traders had “reached levels severe enough to create favorable risk-reward conditions across much of the crypto market.”
Where Crypto Markets Stand
The broader market picture remains mixed. Bitcoin was trading around $63,000 at the time of reporting, up roughly 1% over 24 hours but down nearly 11% over the past week after plunging to $59,000 the previous Friday—the lowest level since November 2024.
One analyst, Merlijn The Trader, correctly anticipated a bounce from $59,000 but warned it might not mark the end of the downturn. He compared the move to the 2022 bear market, where a similar rebound preceded the ultimate capitulation low. According to his view, BTC could climb toward $65,000–$70,000 before a final decline into a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) zone between $48,000 and $59,000.
Ethereum was trading just under $1,700, up about 2% on the day but still down nearly 16% for the week. Like Bitcoin, ETH experienced a weak weekend after dipping toward $1,500, a 14-month low.
Most other large-cap assets on Santiment’s list posted modest daily recoveries but remained deeply negative across seven-day and 30-day windows. While these MVRV readings suggest potentially attractive risk-reward setups for longer-term investors, market participants should weigh the possibility of further downside before committing capital.