- Bitwise forecasts that Bitcoin will deliver annual returns of 28% over the next decade.
- Institutions now treat Bitcoin alongside stocks and bonds for portfolio allocation.
- Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries are driving growing long-term adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitwise Asset Management projects that Bitcoin will offer the highest returns of any asset class over the next ten years, forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% alongside gradually declining volatility.
The outlook was shared in a new memo previewing the firm’s upcoming Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.
Institutional demand is shaping the regulatory and investment landscape
The report, written by Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, addresses large platforms and professional allocators that increasingly consider Bitcoin a “core” portfolio asset.
Hougan notes this shift follows the launch and broad approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have opened the asset class to major pension funds and wealth platforms.
Interest in long-term planning has risen markedly.
Hougan said that this year Bitwise received a dozen requests for long-term assumptions on Bitcoin, compared with none between 2017 and 2024.
He sees this as a turning point: institutions are now evaluating Bitcoin in the same framework used for stocks, bonds, and other traditional assets.
Favorable comparisons with traditional markets
While the full report has not yet been released, the preview states that Bitcoin’s expected returns, volatility profile, and correlations compare favorably with established asset classes.
Bitwise characterizes Bitcoin’s correlations with major assets as “low,” typically ranging between -0.5 and 0.5—an attribute many allocators value for diversification benefits.
The asset manager’s stance on Bitcoin’s outlook mirrors the annual capital market assumptions published by major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard.
Those industry forecasts help institutions determine long-term strategic allocations across equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives.
Hougan argues that a similar form of guidance is now justified for digital assets, given their increasing maturity and integration into traditional investment products.
On-chain growth and corporate holdings
Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, adoption has accelerated.
On-chain holdings associated with these ETFs have grown to represent nearly 7% of the fixed 21 million Bitcoin supply, with assets under management surpassing $146 billion, according to data from The Block.
Corporate treasuries have also expanded their exposure.
Public companies—led by MicroStrategy, which holds 629,376 BTC—collectively hold more than $80 billion in Bitcoin.
Many of these purchases were funded through capital markets activity, including equity offerings and convertible debt issuances.
The full Bitwise report on long-term capital market assumptions for Bitcoin is expected by the end of this week.
It will provide a detailed methodology and quantitative analysis, along with side-by-side comparisons to the long-term assumptions for traditional asset classes used by major global asset managers.
For Bitwise, the release represents an effort to place Bitcoin within the same long-standing framework used to evaluate traditional investments.
For institutions, it reflects growing acceptance of Bitcoin not as a speculative play but as a legitimate allocation option with defined risk and return expectations.