- Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin to deliver an annual return of 28% over the next decade.
- Institutions increasingly treat Bitcoin like equities and bonds when allocating portfolios.
- Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries are driving long-term adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitwise Asset Management expects Bitcoin to post the strongest returns among major asset classes over the next ten years, projecting an annualized growth rate of 28% alongside gradually declining volatility.
This forecast was shared in a new memo previewing the firm’s forthcoming Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.
Institutional demand shapes the framework
The report, written by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, is targeted at large platforms and professional allocators who increasingly view Bitcoin as a core portfolio holding.
Hougan notes that this shift follows the launch and widespread adoption of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have opened the asset class to mainstream retirement accounts and wealth platforms.
Interest in long-term planning has risen markedly.
Hougan said Bitwise received roughly ten requests this year for long-term assumptions about Bitcoin after none were requested between 2017 and 2024.
He views this as a turning point: institutions are now evaluating Bitcoin similarly to equities, bonds and other traditional asset types.
Favorable comparisons to traditional markets
Although the full report has not yet been released, the preview states that Bitcoin’s projected returns, volatility profile and correlations compare favorably to established asset classes.
Bitwise characterizes Bitcoin’s correlations with major assets as “low,” typically ranging between −0.5 and 0.5 — a range many allocators find attractive for diversification benefits.
The manager aligns its outlook on Bitcoin with the format used by large Wall Street firms such as JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock and Vanguard in their annual capital markets forecasts.
Those traditional forecasts help institutions set long-term strategic allocations across equities, fixed income, real assets and alternatives.
Hougan asserts that similar guidance is now warranted for digital assets as they mature and become integrated into mainstream investment products.
Growing on-chain and corporate holdings
Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they have gained rapid traction.
On-chain holdings attributable to these ETFs have grown to represent nearly 7% of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply, and assets under management have exceeded $146 billion, according to The Block.
Corporate treasuries have also expanded their exposure.
Public companies led by MicroStrategy—with 629,376 BTC—have collectively amassed more than $80 billion in Bitcoin holdings.
Many of these corporate purchases were funded through capital markets activity, including equity offerings and convertible debt issuances.
Bitwise’s full Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is expected later this week.
It will provide detailed methodologies, quantitative analyses and side-by-side comparisons with the forecasts used by leading global asset managers for traditional asset classes.
For Bitwise, the publication represents an attempt to place Bitcoin within the same framework that has guided decades of traditional investment assessment.
For institutions, it underscores Bitcoin’s growing acceptance not as a speculative novelty but as a legitimate allocation option with defined risk and return expectations.