On-chain data and technical analysis from well-known analyst Ali Martinez indicate that Bitcoin’s current price action is echoing the bottoming pattern seen in 2022. That resemblance carries both positive and negative implications for the asset.
On the downside, whale behavior poses a concern: large holders have recently moved significant amounts of BTC to exchanges, a pattern often associated with potential selling pressure.
BTC 2026 vs 2022
The 2022 bear market was severe, driven largely by industry-specific crises such as the collapses of Terra and FTX and the fallout for many connected projects and institutions. Over the course of a year, Bitcoin fell from near its then all-time high of almost $70,000 to below $16,000.
Martinez highlighted several parallels between the price dynamics from that period and Bitcoin’s present setup. He warned there could be another substantial rejection similar to the one in August–September 2022, when BTC briefly touched $25,000 before resuming its descent to the 2022 low.
If the current chart mirrors the 2022 scenario, Bitcoin might experience a renewed downturn below $55,000 after being rejected in the roughly $80,000–$82,000 range.
Bitcoin $BTC is showing similarities to its 2022 bottoming structure.
If this holds, we could see another push higher before a final leg down. pic.twitter.com/D1u55JxfZ0
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 1, 2026
The resistance band near $79,000–$80,000 is further reinforced by sizeable sell walls reportedly placed by whales, according to market observers. Bitcoin has been capped around $79,500 on several occasions in recent weeks, and each pullback from that area has shaved several thousand dollars off the price.
BTC to Exchanges
A second important factor that could impede upward momentum is large investors’ recent activity. Martinez’s on-chain data shows that more than 10,000 BTC — roughly $770 million at current prices — have been transferred to centralized exchanges by large market participants, a move commonly interpreted as preparation for selling.
Separately, analyst Crypto Tony suggested that Bitcoin’s brief rebound to about $77,600 in the past 12 hours could meet resistance and lead to another rejection. Still, there are bullish signs: Bitcoin closed April with its strongest monthly gain since April 2025, rising 11.87% according to CoinGlass data, underlining that short-term strength and risk remain in balance.