- Bitwise has reiterated its optimistic forecast that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of the year.
- Bitwise said several of its December 2024 predictions for 2025 remain on track.
- The firm is less certain about the outlook for Ethereum and Solana, both of which have underperformed this year.
Midway through 2025, digital asset manager Bitwise reaffirmed its upbeat projection that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by year-end, citing rising institutional interest and a supportive regulatory environment.
However, the firm is less confident about the prospects for Ethereum and Solana, which have both lagged in performance this year.
In a note to clients published Tuesday, Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, and Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research, reviewed the firm’s forecasts for 2025 and offered a mixed assessment of crypto market momentum so far this year.
Bitcoin holding strong, ETH and SOL lagging
“It has been a mixed year for crypto asset prices,” Hougan and Rasmussen wrote.
“Bitcoin reached a new high of $112,000 in May, driven by strong ETF inflows, growing demand from bitcoin treasury holdings, and the creation of strategic bitcoin reserves in the U.S.”
Bitcoin’s gains contrast with the performance of Ethereum and Solana, both of which have declined year-to-date.
The firm attributes this divergence to broader macroeconomic risks and uneven investor appetite.
Despite those headwinds, Bitwise remains optimistic about the second half of the year.
“We continue to maintain our BTC forecast of $200,000, because there is simply too much institutional demand for BTC for prices to remain flat for long,” Hougan said.
He added that while the firm is “less confident on ETH and SOL,” developments such as additional ETF approvals, rising interest in stablecoins, and the emergence of ETH- and SOL-based treasury strategies could provide upside potential.
Bitwise’s crypto forecasts for 2025
Bitwise said several of its forecasts from December 2024 aimed at 2025 remain intact.
The company’s prediction that inflows into bitcoin ETFs would exceed last year’s $35 billion is still possible, particularly with broader access to these products through major wealth platforms.
Bitwise also noted that two regulatory expectations have already materialized: the U.S. Department of Labor lifted crypto restrictions for 401(k) plans, and both Coinbase and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) secured positions in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively.
These developments have helped make crypto exposure via passive, index-tracking funds available to a wider range of investors.
Meanwhile, Bitwise said its forecast that at least five crypto “unicorns” would go public in the U.S. in 2025 now appears almost certain, with companies such as Circle, Webull, and eToro leading a faster-than-expected wave of IPO activity.
Not all predictions have played out. Bitwise acknowledged that an anticipated surge in meme coins—particularly AI-generated tokens—did not materialize.
The memecoin frenzy faded in the first quarter, Hougan said, pointing to the rapid collapse of politically charged tokens like TRUMP and MELANIA and LIBRA, a coin associated with Argentine president Javier Milei.
Additionally, the firm’s earlier projection that Coinbase would surpass Charles Schwab in market capitalization and reach a stock price of $700 is now seen as increasingly unlikely within the 2025 timeframe.
The forecast that the number of countries holding bitcoin as reserves would double—from nine to 18—also appears ambitious, although Bitwise noted that recent disclosures from the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have moved the needle.