- Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 as global M2 liquidity reaches $55.48 trillion, reflecting a surge in economic capital.
- Analysts say institutional demand from ETFs and corporate buyers could push BTC into the $150,000 range.
- A weakening U.S. dollar and historical divergences indicate a potential new Bitcoin uptrend is forming.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be on a trajectory toward $170,000 as global liquidity measured by broad money supply (M2) hit a record high of $55.48 trillion as of July 2, according to a Cointelegraph report.
The M2 metric includes highly liquid assets such as bank deposits, current accounts and cash equivalents, aggregating liquidity levels across major economies including the United States, the Eurozone, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has shown a strong correlation with global M2 supply, often following liquidity expansion with a lag of three to six months.
During periods of rapid liquidity growth, that lag can shorten considerably. For example, Bitcoin’s breakthrough above $100,000 in April 2025 occurred just weeks after a sharp increase in M2 supply.
The recent expansion in global M2 points to a broader increase in available capital, a trend that typically coincides with inflows into risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Analyst Crypto Auris noted that “as global money supply expands, the next Bitcoin target is around ~$170k, following the flow.” Unlike speculative rallies driven solely by sentiment, liquidity-backed surges tend to produce more durable price trends, potentially providing a firmer foundation for the current Bitcoin cycle.
https://x.com/crypto_auris/status/1940326758202712108
Institutional demand strengthens the bullish case
Bitcoin’s price outlook is also supported by a growing base of institutional investors.
Many analysts forecast BTC reaching $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing increased allocations from institutional players via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury purchases.
This shift reflects the maturation of the digital asset market, where Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against currency debasement and a store of value amid expanding money supply.
Greater institutional participation tends to reduce volatility and improve market depth, supporting the long-term viability of price appreciation.
The broader macroeconomic backdrop reinforces this trend.
Central banks in developed markets continue to pursue accommodative monetary policies, contributing to further M2 expansion and supporting asset prices across risk categories.
Dollar weakness signals potential breakout
Another factor bolstering Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is the weakening U.S. dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the steepest H1 decline since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1973.
By contrast, Bitcoin rose 13.25% over the same period, highlighting a clear negative correlation between the two assets.
Historically, significant divergences between BTC and DXY have preceded major market moves.
Notably, the divergence in November 2020 signaled the start of a sustained rally, while opposite moves in April 2018 and March 2022 coincided with the onset of bear markets.
From early 2024, BTC and DXY had largely moved in tandem, but that pattern broke in April 2025 when DXY fell below the 100 mark for the first time in two years.
If historical patterns hold, this divergence could mark the beginning of a new upward trend for Bitcoin, potentially amplified by further dollar weakness.
As liquidity expands and the dollar softens, the setup for Bitcoin looks increasingly favorable for the second half of the year.