Following a period of speculation-driven spikes, bitcoin (BTC) now appears to be advancing on renewed spot demand. Spot demand metrics, which had recently contracted, have shifted toward expansion in a short period. This shift coincides with the crypto market’s re-evaluation of incoming U.S. economic data.
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the ongoing bitcoin breakout reflects a widening gap between stable historical signals from the U.S. economy and quickly deteriorating consumer sentiment. This macro backdrop has materially influenced risk assets like BTC, helping to lift prices.
BTC Shows Structural Improvement
Since early April, total crypto market capitalization has risen by around $200 billion, driven in part by a 12% BTC rally that produced the strongest monthly performance in a year. By early May, BTC moved above the $80,000 mark for the first time since January 31, clearing a dense overhead supply band near $78,000–$79,000. At the time of writing, the asset traded near $80,900 and had pushed close to $83,000 during the rally.
Bitfinex analysts characterize this advance as a structural improvement, noting BTC moved above a major aggregate cost-basis level near $79,800. That level also corresponds to the True Market Mean, which BTC has now reclaimed.
Crucially, this rally has been driven largely by aggressive spot demand. Many observers had previously noted the market was not positioned for a sustained push above $80,000 due to weak demand, making the recent surge noteworthy.
Spot Demand Is Recovering
On-chain indicators show the spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) rose sharply after May 8, signaling buyers absorbing supply even at premium prices. Order-book dynamics have also shifted from bid-skewed conditions toward a more neutral stance. That surge in spot demand has come from a combination of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and open-market accumulation.
Two weeks ago, Michael Saylor’s Strategy vehicle was a significant source of spot purchases. However, that momentum has softened because the firm’s buying activity has been tied to its yield-bearing product, STRC, which must trade at or above its $100 par value for the Strategy vehicle to acquire additional BTC. Since STRC has not consistently reached that threshold, Strategy’s purchases have slowed and the firm has even considered selling some holdings.
Despite that reduction in one large buyer’s activity, conviction buyers—entities that accumulate BTC and rarely sell—have increased their positions. Analysts estimate these long-term holders now control roughly 4 million BTC following their largest accumulation wave since the COVID-19 market crash. Historically, similar increases in holdings by this cohort have often preceded meaningful price recoveries.
In short, the latest breakout appears underpinned by a meaningful structural shift: spot demand is rebounding, key technical levels have been reclaimed, and long-term holders are rebuilding positions. While macroeconomic uncertainty and episodic profit-taking can still create headwinds, the balance between supply and demand in spot markets suggests stronger foundations for bitcoin’s recent upside.