Bitcoin has struggled to break past $80,000 despite multiple attempts. At the same time, spot trading volumes have slid to their lowest levels since the end of the previous bear market, returning to figures last seen in September 2023.
The decline persisted through April, signaling a slowdown in trading activity and a significant reduction in overall market participation, according to recent analysis from Darkfost.
Traders Stepping Back?
The drop in volume is visible across major exchanges. Since March, Binance—still the largest venue by trading share—saw volumes fall by roughly $25 billion in a month, according to Darkfost’s observations. The trend is not isolated to one platform: Gate.io’s volumes were roughly halved, a decrease of about $13 billion, while OKX recorded a decline near $6 billion.
This contraction comes amid a challenging macroeconomic environment that is weighing on investor sentiment. Ongoing uncertainty around the conflict with Iran has failed to clarify risk, and renewed worries about persistent inflation have gained traction.
Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve appears to have limited scope to speed up monetary easing at the current FOMC meeting, further curbing confidence among some market participants.
Darkfost noted that investors remain reluctant to establish long-term spot exposure, reflecting a lack of conviction in the medium-term outlook. Falling volumes point to weaker near-term momentum and diminished interest, but activity at levels typical of bear markets can also mark the stage where new opportunities begin to emerge.
Bullish Signals and Projections
Other analysts have pointed to technical signals suggesting a potential turn. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the emergence of a “Morning Star” pattern on Bitcoin’s monthly chart, a formation that often signals a shift from fear to uncertainty and toward renewed buying pressure.
Martinez noted that similar monthly patterns have preceded substantial gains in recent years—examples include a 34% rise in 2023, a 212% rally in early 2024, and another near-34% increase later that year. He added that, provided Bitcoin remains above the $73,000 level, the broader trend still favors upside momentum.
Optimistic forecasts have also gained traction among some market figures. Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently said Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by year-end, arguing that increased wartime spending and the resulting boost to global liquidity would support higher prices.
While speaking at Bitcoin Vegas 2026, Hayes suggested that rising defense budgets, heavier government borrowing, and monetary expansion are shifting the environment in the asset’s favor. He also pointed to potential AI-driven credit adjustments and banking regulation changes that could release significant liquidity into the system, helping offset broader economic pressures.
Despite geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran situation, Hayes observed that markets are focused on liquidity dynamics rather than panic, a theme that underpins the bullish case for Bitcoin among some analysts.