- Spot demand for BTC is strengthening as dense accumulation signals a durable support base.
- Coinbase and Binance flows point to liquidity shifts that are fueling bullish momentum.
- Bitcoin must overcome resistance at $113,650 to confirm a breakout—or it risks retesting the $100,000 area.
The Bitcoin (BTC) spot market is showing signs of a potential resurgence, supported by on-chain data, exchange flow metrics, and technical signals that together point to growing buyer conviction.
Analysts note that recent developments could set the stage for a breakout, although caution remains warranted given the asset’s historically weak seasonality in September.
On-chain data underscores buyer conviction
Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution differs markedly from that of Ether (ETH).
The cost-basis distribution, which tracks where significant supply was accumulated or distributed, shows much denser activity around recent price levels for Bitcoin compared with ETH.
Transactions cluster tightly near current prices, indicating that buyers are accumulating with conviction.
Historically, such tight clustering in Bitcoin has provided more durable support than momentum driven primarily by futures markets.
This suggests the current market structure could be more resilient, with spot demand forming the foundation for further upside.
Complementing this trend, long-term holder (LTH) spend rates have ticked up modestly in recent weeks.
The 14-day simple moving average (SMA) shows a gradual increase, pointing to some profit-taking.
However, this activity remains within typical cycle norms and well below the spikes recorded in October–November 2024, indicating measured rather than aggressive selling.
Exchange flows indicate shifting liquidity
Exchange flow data further supports the recovery narrative.
A CryptoQuant review highlights sustained net inflow spikes on Coinbase between August 25 and 31, following a period when its 30-day net flow SMA hit the lowest level since early 2023.
Historically, sharp reversals from multi-year lows often signal regime changes in liquidity—either from settlement reshuffling or increased positioning ahead of higher activity.
At the same time, Binance’s 30-day net flow SMA climbed to levels unseen since July 2024, peaking around July 25 and August 25.
Those levels previously matched re-accumulation phases that preceded new local highs.
The coincident trough on Coinbase and peak on Binance suggest meaningful reserve redistribution, potentially laying the groundwork for BTC’s upward momentum.
Technical breakout levels are in focus
Price action adds further weight to the case for a rebound.
Bitcoin dipped to $107,300 on Monday, closely aligning with its short-term realized price, before rebounding sharply.
By Tuesday’s New York session, BTC had cleared Monday’s high near $109,900, signaling renewed resilience.
On shorter timeframes such as the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, Bitcoin displayed structural breakouts.
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed back above 50, reinforcing rising momentum.
For the recovery to sustain, Bitcoin needs a decisive break above the $112,500–$113,650 resistance band.
A close above $113,650 would confirm a daily breakout and negate the descending trendline that capped price action over the past two weeks.
Such a move could unlock liquidity targets at $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500.
Conversely, failure to hold momentum above $113,650 would leave downside risk dominant.
A failed breakout could expose the cryptocurrency to a retest of the order block between $105,000 and $100,000.