Similar to previous bear markets, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be entering a prolonged slow-bleed phase. Analysts noted in the latest Bitfinex Alpha report that this seasonal pattern is being intensified by weakening demand from both spot markets and institutional channels.
Options traders have also reduced their demand for protection: implied volatility has been declining, and derivatives metrics have slid to multi-month lows. This reflects a lower willingness to pay high premiums for hedging, signaling reduced concern about sudden large moves.
Market in Slow Bleed Regime
According to the Bitfinex report, volatility sellers have taken control, which lowers the probability of sharp price swings in either direction. With open interest gradually falling, the Bitcoin market is more likely to experience a slow bleed rather than a rapid deleveraging event.
Evidence of this condition can be seen in Bitcoin’s May performance. After an early-month rally that briefly pushed BTC above $82,000, the token finished the month down, falling about 12.5% from its local high. Bitfinex analysts say this performance highlights a growing disconnect between broader macroeconomic signals and crypto market behavior.
May’s decline also suggests that internal market dynamics—rather than external macro factors—have been the primary drivers of weakness. The shift from early-month expansion to sustained distribution points to a lack of conviction among market participants, not necessarily a deterioration of outside economic conditions.
A clear indication of that lack of conviction is the cumulative $3 billion in outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past three weeks. Weakening spot demand, profit-taking by short-term holders, and reduced institutional participation removed key supports that helped power Bitcoin’s earlier recovery. Analysts warn this combination leaves the market more exposed to distribution-led selling pressure.
Will June End Negatively Like May?
Market observers caution that June could finish on a negative note similar to May if Bitcoin follows historical bear market patterns.
Seasonal data since 2013 show that May has typically ended with positive returns—an average gain of about 7.36% and a median above 3.5%. However, bear markets such as 2018 and 2022 produced only brief recoveries early in the year. Over the last two years, geopolitical events—last year’s U.S. tariffs episode and this year’s tensions involving Iran—have altered normal seasonal dynamics and increased the chances of a negative June outcome.
That said, a negative finish to June is not inevitable. A material shift in structural inflows from ETFs and other institutional products could reverse the trend. Significant spot accumulation from large investors would change market dynamics and could produce a more positive result by restoring demand and confidence.