On Monday, bitcoin climbed back above $80,000 for the first time since January, and a widely followed technical indicator is signaling the potential for significantly larger gains.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez notes that a bullish MACD crossover on BTC’s weekly chart, confirmed on April 13, has already coincided with a roughly 15% price increase. Historically, Martinez argues, the same weekly signal has often preceded much larger moves.
What the MACD Signal Means
The MACD measures momentum by comparing two exponential moving averages. Traders typically interpret a faster-moving line crossing above the slower line as an indication that bearish pressure is waning and upward momentum is building.
Weekly MACD crossovers on bitcoin are commonly given more weight than similar signals on shorter timeframes because weekly charts filter out short-term noise and better reflect the sustained shifts in price action and market sentiment.
Martinez outlined the historical performance of this exact weekly setup on social media. He pointed to an October 2023 crossover that preceded a 147% rally, another in October 2024 that led to a 75% gain, and a crossover in May 2025 that produced a roughly 35% move. Those examples are used to suggest that the current crossover could lead to further upside beyond the initial 15% move already seen.
Another technical level analysts are watching closely is bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is sitting near $83,000. A clean daily close above that SMA would be viewed as an important structural breakout, potentially opening a path toward $89,000 and then $94,000. While $100,000 is not guaranteed, proponents of the MACD-based thesis say that if the current crossover follows the pattern of past weekly signals, reaching that milestone becomes more plausible.
At the time of reporting, bitcoin traded around $81,000, roughly 1.4% higher over the previous 24 hours and up about 21% over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko data. Trading volume also increased notably, rising about 43% day-over-day to nearly $49 billion, which suggests the recent move involved substantial participation on exchanges rather than being an isolated price blip.
Some On-Chain Signs Investors Shouldn’t Ignore
Not all market participants are convinced the advance will continue uninterrupted. Trader Doctor Profit has warned that the current price area could represent the final phase of a bull trap before another downward leg, highlighting that technical signals can produce false starts.
On-chain data also introduces cautionary notes. Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that bitcoin’s on-chain activity has dropped to roughly two-year lows even as the price passed $80,000. Daily transfer activity across wallets sits near 531,000, while new wallet creation is about 203,000 per day—both figures are close to the lower end of the range seen over the last two years.
That divergence — rising price paired with subdued network activity — suggests the recent appreciation may be driven primarily by a smaller set of participants, likely larger holders and institutional players, rather than a broad-based return of retail interest. When price advances occur on relatively thin participation, they tend to be more vulnerable, because fewer buyers are available to absorb selling pressure if sentiment shifts.
In short, the weekly MACD crossover presents a bullish technical case for continued upside, and key levels such as the 200-day SMA will be important to monitor for confirmation. At the same time, on-chain metrics and differing analyst views underscore that the rally’s breadth and durability are not guaranteed, so traders and investors should weigh both the technical momentum and the narrower participation behind the move when making decisions.