Bitcoin is trading above $80,000 as the first full week of May begins, pressing against the upper edge of a supply zone that has defined the ceiling of this recovery. With the 100-day moving average now clearly reclaimed, the market structure is the most constructive it has been since the cycle peak, and on-chain signals originating from the February lows are beginning to show value.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
Bitcoin has held above the 100-day moving average (around $72,000) for several consecutive days, confirming a genuine reclaim rather than a transient wick. The daily RSI is steady in the 60–65 range, indicating healthy momentum without the overbought extremes that have preceded prior failed breakouts.
The immediate technical test is a clean daily close above $80,000, which represents the top of the current supply zone and the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Clearing that level would open the path toward $90,000 and, potentially, the $100,000 area where a stronger resistance band lies. However, the 200-day moving average is sloping downward into the $84,000–$85,000 range and presents a significant hurdle along the way.
On the downside, the 100-day moving average near $72,000 and the lower boundary of the channel near $70,000 are the primary support levels to defend on any pullback.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, the steeper blue trendline drawn from early April lows has acted as reliable dynamic support. Price bounced cleanly from that line near $76,000 before pushing back toward current highs. The 4-hour RSI remains above 50 after dropping rapidly from oversold levels during the recent short-term pullback.
Price is retracing after a decisive rejection from the upper boundary of the ascending white channel around $80,000, which coincides with the daily supply zone. A 4-hour close above the $80,000 region, with RSI still below 75, would signal a high-conviction breakout and open the door toward the $84,000 area.
The blue intraday trendline near $77,000 remains the crucial short-term support. If that level is lost on a closing basis, it would suggest the upper-channel rejection is unfolding and shift focus back to the $74,000 support level.
On-Chain Analysis
The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) tells an important part of this recovery story. During the February lows near $60,000, the MPI fell below -1.0, a threshold that has historically signaled miner accumulation rather than distribution.
Miners did not panic-sell through the dip; they held and absorbed supply. That behavior has often preceded significant rallies in the past. With Bitcoin trading near $79,500, the MPI has recovered from its lows but remains below zero, indicating miners are still distributing far less than they did at market peaks.
This reading suggests miners have not been selling heavily into this recovery, removing a major potential overhead pressure for buyers. If the MPI begins to trend above +0.5 as price advances, it will be a meaningful development to monitor. For now, however, the MPI signal remains constructive.