Bitcoin is trading around $76,800 as the third week of May begins, having surrendered the $80,000 breakout that defined last week’s narrative. A short-term bullish trendline that supported the inner rally structure has been broken, and price has pulled back into the mid-range of the large ascending channel on the daily chart. The $75,000 support zone is now the critical line in the sand.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, the previous channel breakout has been invalidated and Bitcoin has returned inside the structure, now testing the middle range near $76,000–$75,000. The 100-day moving average has declined to roughly $72,000 and is approaching from below, providing a rising floor that reduces immediate downside risk. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average sits near $81,000 and is exerting downward pressure after a decisive rejection.
The $75,000 area is the most important level to defend, as it represents the most recent bullish order block and the short-term swing low. A rebound from this zone and a recovery back above $80,000 would suggest the pullback is corrective and that the broader uptrend remains intact.
Conversely, a decisive break below $75,000 would likely send price toward the 100-day moving average and the $72,000 demand area. Such a move would raise questions about whether the recent recovery was sustainable or merely a trap for early buyers.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, the bearish RSI divergence that formed around the $80,000–$82,000 highs has played out as expected. The inner bullish trendline from April has been broken, and RSI has plunged below 35, approaching oversold territory on this timeframe for the first time in recent months.
Price currently sits at the upper edge of the $75,000–$76,000 support zone. A bounce here, accompanied by a bullish RSI divergence and a recovery from oversold levels, would indicate the correction is exhausted and could precede another push toward $80,000.
Failure to hold $75,000 would open the door to the next support area between $70,000 and $72,000, which aligns with the lower boundary of the daily ascending channel and the 100-day moving average. If the $75,000 zone breaks, buyers will face a critical contest around $72,000 to prevent a deeper decline.
On-Chain Analysis
The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has recovered from its February low below 0.98 back to approximately 1.005. Readings below 1.0 signaled widespread capitulation, with sellers realizing losses by offloading coins below cost basis. The metric’s recrossing of the 1.0 threshold is historically associated with a shift from bear-market behavior toward recovery.
However, the current reading is fragile. At 1.005, aSOPR has barely cleared the key line, and any significant price decline back toward $70,000–$72,000 risks pushing the metric below 1.0 again. That outcome would indicate the recovery has stalled and that sellers are once more realizing losses. Defending the $75,000 support zone is therefore both a technical and an on-chain imperative: it helps keep aSOPR above 1.0 and preserves the recovery narrative.