Bitcoin is trading around $77,500 as the third week of May comes to an end. The market has quietly recovered from the $75,000–$76,000 support zone after last week’s unsuccessful attempt to break above $80,000. The price pullback was absorbed without breaking the structure, the ascending channel floor remains intact and continues to climb, and on-chain indicators provide additional context that the price chart alone understates. Overall sentiment is rebuilding from levels last seen at the start of the previous bull market.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, the ascending channel that began at February’s lows remains intact. Bitcoin bounced from the upper edge of the $75,000–$76,000 support zone and moved back toward $77,500. The 100-day moving average is now sloping upward near $72,000 and is converging with that support band. The result is a strengthening combined support floor that should continue to rise incrementally each week.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 50, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum for now. To restore convincing bullish momentum, a recovery above $80,000 and a breakout above the nearby 200-day moving average would be the immediate technical triggers to watch.
If that bullish scenario unfolds, the next structural target lies in the $88,000–$90,000 range. Conversely, a daily close below $75,000 and the 100-day moving average near $72,000 would represent the first meaningful structural damage to the recovery and could open the door to deeper downside.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the $75,000–$76,000 area pushed the RSI from the low-to-mid 30s back toward the mid-40s to 50. Price is now tracking toward a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $80,000. This gap represents an imbalance left by the rapid sell-off from $82,000 highs, and assets often return to these gaps to “fill” them before the next decisive directional move.
The FVG is the immediate short-term upside target. A clean move through that gap would signal that the pullback has been fully absorbed and would likely set the stage for another attempt toward the $82,000 supply zone and the upper boundary of the daily channel. Failure to lift through the FVG, or a rollover back below $75,000, would indicate that selling pressure from the failed breakout remains, increasing the probability of a revisit to the lower demand zone around $70,000–$72,000.
On-Chain Analysis
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has rebounded from a February low of roughly 0.12 — the weakest reading since October 2023, which briefly signaled a capitulation phase. NUPL has climbed back to about 0.29. That level places the market above the green zone, meaning the average Bitcoin holder now sits on moderate unrealized gains. However, the level of euphoric sentiment that typically precedes market peaks is not present.
Historically, the comparison is notable. NUPL passed 0.29 in late 2023 when the price was near $40,000 on its way toward the bull market peak. The move from that reading toward the 0.50 threshold — a level where momentum has historically accelerated — corresponded to a price rise from roughly $40,000 to around $80,000. At today’s price of about $77,500 with NUPL near 0.29, on-chain sentiment suggests the market has moved beyond capitulation and is rebuilding confidence, but much of the cycle’s potential unrealized gains may still lie ahead rather than behind.