The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has plunged recently, suffering another steep decline over the past 24 hours.
Several analysts warn that the price could fall further in the near term, while one key technical indicator points to a potential rebound.
How Much Lower?
There is little sugarcoating the recent action in Bitcoin. The price has lost more than $20,000 in the last month, and a few hours ago it fell to nearly $61,000 — the lowest level since early February. Multiple factors have combined to drive the sell-off: a major holder’s decision to sell some Bitcoin, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, large outflows from spot ETFs, and a persistent bear market across the broader crypto sector.
Bitcoin is trading near $62,500 at the time of writing, a modest recovery from the intraday low, yet many market participants expect more downside.
Analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that the breakdown below $72,000 has left Bitcoin in a vulnerable position. Using MVRV pricing bands, he identified the next meaningful support area between $50,000 and $54,000.
Another commentator on X, Ted, argued that a classic head-and-shoulders breakdown is not yet complete and suggested that $49,000 would represent a reasonable bottom zone, referencing the low seen in August 2024 as a comparison.
Unsurprisingly, the dramatic drop has prompted skeptics to predict even deeper losses. Long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff forecast that a breach of $50,000 could trigger a collapse toward $20,000. He argued that such a sharp fall would likely shake the conviction of many long-term holders and force a wave of capitulation.
“It should be a quick fall below $20K, which should be a big enough drop to shake the conviction of long-term HODLers, causing many to finally throw in the towel,” he wrote.
Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Despite the selling pressure and bleak calls for lower prices, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a recovery may be possible. Traders commonly use the RSI to identify potential reversal points by measuring whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
The RSI ranges from 0 to 100: readings below 30 typically indicate oversold conditions that could precede a rebound, while readings above 70 signal overbought conditions and a higher chance of a pullback. A few hours ago, Bitcoin’s RSI plunged to 11 — its lowest level in four months — and has since climbed to roughly 16, indicating the market remains deeply oversold and could be primed for a bounce.
At present, the balance between bearish momentum and technical signals like the RSI will likely determine whether Bitcoin continues lower toward the suggested support zones or stabilizes and begins a recovery. Traders and investors will be watching price action closely to see if buying interest emerges at the cited support levels or if fear drives further liquidation.