Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC’s Most Likely Scenario This Week

Bitcoin continues to trade under significant pressure after losing several important support levels in quick succession. The recent breakdown has pushed the cryptocurrency into a major demand region near $60,000, while on-chain data shows older coins moving to exchanges more frequently—adding another layer of caution for market participants.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC’s breakdown triggered an aggressive sell-off that drove the price into a key support zone roughly between $59,000 and $62,000. This area previously served as a strong accumulation region and is now producing the first meaningful buying reaction. The most recent candles show a modest bounce from lows near $59,100, but the recovery remains limited.

The broader structure remains bearish while Bitcoin trades below the former support area near $66,000 to $67,000. Any recovery rally is likely to face resistance there first. Above that level, the next major supply zone sits around $72,000 to $74,000, which coincides with the breakdown region and could attract renewed selling pressure.

If BTC can hold above $60,000 for a sustained period, a relief rally may follow. However, reclaiming the $66,000–$74,000 range would be necessary to improve the larger market structure and shift sentiment. Failure to defend the current demand zone could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction below the recent lows.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart gives a clearer view of the recent breakdown. After a rejection, price lost the $72,000–$74,000 supply area and then broke below intermediate support around $65,000. The sell-off accelerated, producing a sharp, impulsive move toward the blue demand zone near $60,000.

Buyers are currently trying to stabilize price within this support region, but the rebound looks corrective rather than impulsive. As long as Bitcoin stays below the former support at $65,000 and the previous consolidation zone around $72,000–$74,000, the short-term trend remains tilted toward the bears.

A recovery above $65,000 would be the first sign that downside momentum is weakening. Until that occurs, traders will likely watch the current support closely for either a stronger reversal or another leg lower.

On-Chain Analysis

The Exchange Inflow Spent Output Age Bands chart shows a noticeable increase in exchange deposits from older coins, particularly in the 3–6 month and 6–12 month cohorts. Recent spikes are among the largest visible on the chart and have appeared while Bitcoin has been trending lower.

Historically, higher exchange inflows from older holders can signal growing distribution, as coins that remained dormant for months are transferred back to exchanges where they may be sold. A single spike does not guarantee further downside, but repeated inflow surges during a declining market often reflect weakening holder conviction.

Current data suggests that medium-term holders have become more active during the correction. If these inflows continue, they could keep applying supply pressure and make a sustained recovery more difficult in the near term.

Overall, Bitcoin is attempting to defend a crucial support zone around $60,000 to $62,000. While a short-term bounce is underway, both price structure and on-chain activity indicate that bulls still face significant hurdles before a broader trend reversal can be confirmed.