Key takeaways
- BTC is targeting the $120,000 resistance level ahead of the FOMC meeting.
- The $116,000 resistance remains a hurdle for traders despite bullish price action.
BTC still trading below the $116,000 resistance
The crypto market started the week on a bearish note but has since shown signs of recovery as Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies post gains. On Monday, Bitcoin dipped to around $114,000 while many altcoins experienced larger declines.
Bitcoin has since staged a modest rebound and is trading above $115,000, but the $116,000 resistance level remains intact. Price action has been relatively flat as traders await tomorrow’s crucial FOMC meeting.
Analysts widely expect the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points, with some forecasting a 50-basis-point reduction. Markets are pricing in a high probability of a cut: Polymarket odds for a rate reduction have climbed above 90%, and the CME FedWatch tool shows roughly a 95% chance. A Fed rate cut would likely favor risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially sending the leading cryptocurrency back toward its all-time high.
BTC eyes $120,000 ahead of the FOMC
The 4-hour BTC/USD chart remains bullish and resilient despite Monday’s pullback. Technical indicators have improved over the last several hours, and attention is squarely on the expected Fed rate decision tomorrow.
The RSI reading near 55 suggests buyers still control the market, while the MACD lines sit in bullish territory. If Bitcoin breaks above the $116,000 resistance, it could quickly rally toward the psychological $120,000 level within hours or days. A sustained bullish run could then push BTC to test or exceed previous highs, potentially targeting above $125,000.
Conversely, failure to clear the $116,000 barrier could trigger another downside correction. Bitcoin might retest trendline support and the $113,479 support zone. That level is likely to hold initially, with the next meaningful support area near $110,000.