Key takeaways
- BTC is trading above $109,000, down about 5% over the past seven days.
- Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has cooled after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another rate cut in December is uncertain.
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs softens
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has waned in recent days amid the current financial backdrop. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this week that it remains unclear whether another interest-rate cut will occur in December.
Data from the latest weekly CryptoQuant report show U.S. investor demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs cooled sharply. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a seven-day average outflow of 281 BTC, one of the weakest readings since April. At the same time, inflows into Ether have stagnated over the past week.
The report also noted that Coinbase premiums for BTC and ETH flattened near zero, and the CME futures basis fell to multi-year lows. These indicators suggest that both institutional and retail traders are taking profits rather than adding exposure.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is still struggling below the short-term holders’ cost basis of roughly $113,000, while long-term holders continue to distribute about 104,000 BTC per month.
Transfers from whale wallets to exchanges have risen to $293 million per day, implying that investors are realizing gains instead of increasing market exposure.
Bitcoin could drop to $102,000 if it closes below key support
The 4-hour BTC/USD chart remains bearish and intact, with price down about 1% over the last 24 hours. The monthly candle will close in a few hours and could signal how the market behaves in the near term.
If Bitcoin continues its correction and closes the candle below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $106,453, it could extend the decline toward the October 10 low near $102,000.
The RSI sits at 46, below the neutral 50 level, indicating bearish momentum is gaining traction. MACD lines are converging, which also points to downward pressure.
However, if Bitcoin holds the support at $106,453, it could rebound toward the 50-day EMA around $112,872 over the coming hours and days.