Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back toward $78,000 on Monday as analysts linked the latest rebound to easing tensions between the United States and Iran and the potential for a broader recovery across risk assets.
Traders who spent much of the past two weeks preparing for another downturn are now watching to see whether the flagship cryptocurrency can reclaim the low-$80,000 area and lift altcoins alongside it.
Peace Deal Could Be the Macro Catalyst Crypto Has Been Waiting For
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe wrote on X earlier today, outlining the sequence of moves he expects to follow a Middle East peace agreement:
“Oil goes down. Yields go down. Risk-on assets will do well. Bitcoin breaks above $80k+ again. Altcoins will have their time for the entire summer.”
He said the main concern had been whether BTC could retake a key resistance level, which it now appears to be challenging.
“From that point on, many charts look like they want to break upwards, and that would be putting crypto back on the map,” he wrote.
The timing of the comments is notable: Bitcoin had slipped to just above $74,000 on Saturday morning, its lowest level in May, following a fresh round of threats from former President Trump toward Iran.
The market reversed quickly after Trump announced that both sides had made significant progress toward a lasting peace deal, with BTC rallying to roughly $77,200 before meeting resistance.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $77,500, below its 7-day high of approximately $78,000 and about 38% beneath its all-time peak above $126,000 set in October 2025.
Over the past year, Bitcoin has lost roughly 28% of its value.
Trader Sykodelic, posting around the same time as van de Poppe, expressed cautious optimism but warned that a peace deal announcement this week could initially trigger a dip before any sustained advance.
“Take out the weekend lows, another go at that $74,000 level, tempt the bears one more time…then we run it up leading into June,” he wrote.
Sykodelic also noted that Bitcoin had closed the week above both its 50- and 100-period simple moving averages and above the so-called bull market support band he has been tracking for about three months.
Not Everyone Is Ready to Call the Bottom
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed to a concerning data point from last week: roughly 18,000 BTC flowed onto exchanges while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of about 16,000 BTC.
“ETF demand did not absorb the exchange inflow. It added to the pressure,” he observed.
Market watcher Merlijn The Trader identified a short-term target in the $82,000 range, describing it as a “liquidity cluster” where trapped sellers could face pressure.
However, he was clear that he expects to set up a short position around that area, with a longer-term downside target near $67,000.
Analyst Dean Crypto Trades previously argued that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the low $80,000 area—where the 200-day moving average sits—and establish a higher low there.
Absent that move, he warned, the recent bounce could amount to another lower high within a downtrend that has been in place since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak.