In what promises to be one of the most eventful economic weeks of 2026, the headline event arrives tomorrow evening when the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce whether it has adjusted interest rates and outline its forward guidance.
Although most analysts expect the Fed to hold rates steady, historical patterns have shown that Bitcoin (BTC) often becomes volatile in the days following these meetings, with downward moves being common.
Will BTC Dip Again?
Prominent crypto analyst Crypto Rover has highlighted a recurring pattern that began in mid-2025. He presented a chart showing that Bitcoin experienced significant drops after “every single Fed meeting” since July 2025.
Based on this history, Crypto Rover warned that tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is “unlikely to be any different,” and that Bitcoin could decline further. The cryptocurrency rallied to roughly $79,500 on a couple of occasions over the past week but was rejected at that level and currently trades around $77,000.
BRACE YOURSELF BITCOIN HOLDERS!
I’ve been tracking Bitcoin price action around every FOMC meeting since July 2025.
The pattern is brutal.
Every single Fed meeting since then has triggered a hard drop in $BTC.
No exceptions.
Tomorrow’s FOMC is unlikely to be any different.… pic.twitter.com/Wf2As6cNXg
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) April 28, 2026
The chart points to several sizable daily price drops within the first week or so after each prior meeting. Notably, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points on three occasions in late 2025. While rate cuts are typically bullish for risk-on assets such as Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency still declined after those reductions.
Or Maybe Not?
Other analysts offer a contrasting view. One commentator suggested that because this is likely to be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s last FOMC meeting, the market could see a “possible Powell farewell rally” after the announcement.
Bitfinex analysts, speaking to CryptoPotato via email, argued that markets are likely to enter a phase of consolidation or to technically retest the $75,000 area ahead of the FOMC decision. After the meeting, however, they said Bitcoin could push above $80,000 for the first time in nearly three months.
“As a result, the path of least resistance in the near term is likely consolidation or a pullback toward the $75,000 region, with a decisive break above $80,000 required to confirm a more durable bullish regime.”
In summary, traders face competing scenarios: a historical tendency for post-FOMC weakness that could drive BTC lower, or a potential bullish response tied to Fed messaging—or even a Powell-related rally—that could push prices back above $80,000. Given the mixed signals, many market participants will likely watch the Fed statement and the accompanying press conference closely for clues about the economic outlook and the central bank’s future policy path.