Just a few days ago, the crypto community was upbeat after progress on the CLARITY Act and a brief price recovery for Bitcoin and many altcoins. The market leader jumped from below $79,000 to about $82,000 within minutes of the bill passing the Senate Banking Committee, but the rally failed to hold and the gains were quickly erased.
Earlier today, bearish momentum intensified and pushed Bitcoin to a two-week low, dropping well under $78,000. Analysts have suggested several possible reasons for the renewed decline, with some warning of a potential move toward a new local low near $63,000.
Will BTC Keep Dropping?
One early warning came from Ali Martinez, who noted that Bitcoin miners have continued to sell. Using CryptoQuant data, he reported miners reduced their holdings by roughly 800 BTC—about $64 million—over the past several days. Martinez cautioned that this rising selling pressure could soon affect price action.
Trader Merlijn The Trader also weighed in on Bitcoin’s recent performance, particularly the surge to and slightly above $82,000. While many celebrated the move as evidence the bear market was over, he warned that the rally may be a trap.
Merlijn argued Bitcoin is “setting up for a brutal dump toward $63,000,” calling the recent bounce the biggest bull trap since the early January rejection at $96,000, which led to a decline toward $60,000 within weeks. He emphasized that relief rallies create the buyer demand sellers need to unwind positions, potentially triggering sharp reversals.
Or Maybe It’s Not So Bad?
Not everyone agrees the outlook is dire. Michaël van de Poppe cautioned that losing $80,000 as support does not necessarily mean BTC will “crash all the way towards new lows.” He pointed to past episodes—such as the COVID-19 market crash and the subsequent recovery—when Bitcoin rose rapidly without experiencing frequent 10% corrections, effectively moving up in a straight line.
Van de Poppe noted that after a strong bounce, consolidation and profit-taking are to be expected, but said it would be unreasonable to assume an immediate large-scale correction of 20% is inevitable. In his view, the market may simply undergo normal consolidation rather than collapse into new lows.
In summary, analysts remain divided. Some see miner selling and recent rallies as signs of a potential trap that could push Bitcoin toward $63,000, while others argue the loss of a key level does not guarantee a crash and that the market could settle into consolidation. Traders and investors should monitor on-chain metrics, miner behavior, and price structure to gauge the next likely direction.