- Bitcoin falls below $104K amid heavy ETF outflows.
- Key resistance at $106K–$107K amid rebound attempts.
- Whale selling is on the rise as retail buys surge.
Bitcoin (BTC) opened June under pressure, slipping below $104,000 to a low of $103,833.57 on June 2 as investors reacted to a fresh wave of ETF outflows and growing technical uncertainty. After closing May with its strongest monthly close to date near $105,700, market momentum shifted quickly as signs emerged of distribution by large holders and institutional sellers.
Bitcoin ETF outflows outweigh inflows
A six-week run of inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended abruptly on May 30, when funds recorded a combined $616.22 million in outflows, according to Coinglass data. This reversal marked a stark change from prior weeks, when ETF flows supported the bullish case and helped drive Bitcoin’s roughly 11% monthly gain.
This round of withdrawals was led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which saw $430.82 million leave the fund despite still managing over $69 billion in assets. Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB also registered notable outflows of $113.71 million and $120.14 million respectively, highlighting the broad-based nature of the sell-off.
While cumulative inflows across all spot ETFs remain positive at approximately $44.37 billion, the sudden pullback suggests investors have shifted to a more cautious stance amid rising macroeconomic concerns and technical risks.
Pullback in Bitcoin price
On price charts, Bitcoin’s retreat from roughly $109,000 to $103,833 has taken it below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the rally toward the recent all-time high of about $112,000. The decline reflected heavy profit-taking into the end of May and was amplified by bearish technical patterns, including a death cross forming on the four-hour chart.
During Monday’s European session, BTC briefly climbed to about $105,500 but then stalled near $105,800 — a zone where the 0.618 Fibonacci level aligns with the 100 EMA, creating a significant confluence of resistance. Although the 20 EMA has been reclaimed, price action remains capped below the 50 EMA around $106,000, suggesting bulls face an uphill battle to restore upward momentum.
If Bitcoin cannot break through the resistance band between $106,000 and $107,000, downside pressure may intensify and push the market back toward the recent intraday low near $103,200.
Volatility was also heightened by high-leverage activity from retail traders. Notably, a prominent leveraged trader reopened a $100 million BTC long at 40x leverage on Hyperliquid, with a liquidation price close to $101,999. These repeated large leveraged positions have contributed to speculative flows and periodic sharp price moves on margin platforms.
Leverage and trading behavior
That trader later announced a pause from perpetual futures trading after a string of significant unrealized losses. Such events underscore the risks of elevated leverage in crypto markets and their potential to amplify short-term volatility when large positions come under stress.
On-chain metrics point to divergence
On-chain indicators reveal a divergence between the behavior of large holders and retail participants. Since Bitcoin crossed roughly $81,000, many large addresses have steadily reduced exposure, while retail traders appear to be buying into recent highs — a pattern that historically aligns with short-term corrections rather than sustainable breakouts.
Analytics firm Santiment noted increased whale activity around the May 22 peak, observing that similar patterns in the past often presaged local tops. At the same time, momentum indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) have turned more bearish, showing divergence as price attempts to climb back above key resistance zones.
Macro factors are also weighing on sentiment. Traders remain attentive to signals from the Federal Reserve as employment growth cools and inflation moderates. A weakening U.S. Dollar Index could provide a short-term tailwind for BTC, but analysts are divided on whether current levels represent a launching pad for new highs or the precursor to further losses.
Glassnode’s MVRV ratio places Bitcoin between bands that historically precede local tops, with the +1σ level near $119,400 acting as a psychological ceiling for many profit-takers. Some market participants still expect a bounce from the $100K area toward $113K, but the risk of a deeper correction continues to dominate both spot and derivatives market sentiment.
What to watch in June
As June progresses, investors will closely monitor ETF flow data, key macroeconomic indicators, and on-chain signals to gauge whether Bitcoin can decisively reclaim the $106,000–$107,000 range. A sustained breakout above that band would be needed to confirm renewed bullish momentum, while failure to do so could expose the market to further downside as distribution dynamics and leveraged positions continue to influence price action.