Bitcoin has met resistance at its 200-day moving average and is showing signs of a potential trend reversal, CryptoQuant reported on Wednesday. The current price action closely resembles March 2022, when a 43% rally stalled at the same moving average before prices declined further.
“Overall, Bitcoin demand has flipped into contraction,” the analyst wrote.
CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index” has fallen from 40 to extreme bearish territory at 20, a decline driven by stalling stablecoin liquidity and negative price momentum that together weakened the composite signal.
This score mirrors deep bear market readings from February and March, when prices fell to around $60,000. Historically, such readings have tended to precede either additional price weakness or extended consolidation, the platform noted.
Bitcoin Correction Likely to Continue
Should the correction persist, on-chain analysts point to $70,000 as the primary support target — the traders’ on-chain realized price. CryptoQuant highlights that this level has acted as a precise inflection point throughout the current bear market cycle.
A drop below that level back into the $60,000 range could open the door to new bear market lows. Glassnode reported on Wednesday that Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the True Market Mean at $78,300 but failed to hold above it. Glassnode also warned that, if historical cycle patterns repeat, the correction from recent highs is likely to continue.
“Any deeper correction from current levels would therefore reframe the recent rally as a local top within the ongoing bear market, a structure that has recurred multiple times in prior cycles and remains the higher probability outcome until price demonstrates sustained follow-through.”
Swissblock noted on Thursday that Bitcoin’s momentum has faded from full strength. The firm remained cautiously optimistic, saying that as long as momentum does not deteriorate significantly, consolidation remains the base case rather than a breakdown.
Bitcoin momentum has faded from full max momentum.
But as long as it does not fall below -0.5, this does not imply breakdown.
What usually follows is consolidation.
The key reference is June–July 2025.
Momentum faded from full strength, but the indicator never broke below…
— Swissblock (@swissblock__)
Crypto Market Outlook
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has climbed modestly, gaining about 1.7% from roughly $76,600 to test $78,000 twice during Thursday morning Asian trading. However, the $78,000 area represents a resistance zone that must be cleared quickly for BTC to resume a move toward $80,000. Current volume and sentiment suggest the pair may struggle to break through.
Ether has broadly tracked Bitcoin’s movement but remains bearish under $2,150 at the time of writing, while several altcoins posted larger gains. Notably, Hyperliquid and Zcash produced double-digit percentage increases on the day.