JPMorgan Says Grayscale Could Be the Key to Bitcoin Reaching $40,000 in Coming Days or Weeks
JPMorgan analysts see bitcoin under pressure but believe Grayscale could hold the key to pushing the cryptocurrency back toward the $40,000 mark. Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim $40,000 after hitting an all-time high near $41,900 earlier this year.
BTC plunged about 30% last week, falling to roughly $32,000 before bouncing back; it is currently trading above $36,000. JPMorgan strategists say short-term performance for bitcoin will likely hinge on Grayscale’s flows and activity.
Nikolas Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan’s head of research, warned that the flagship crypto could lose momentum in the near term unless it convincingly breaks above $40,000. Bitcoin briefly cleared that level twice this month — when it reached near $41,900 and again during last week’s uptick above $40,000.
Analysts at the bank point out that Grayscale, which manages more than $23 billion in assets, could determine whether bitcoin returns to the $40,000 area. They noted that continued inflows to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have the potential to support price recovery.
In a note published Friday, JPMorgan analysts wrote that “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund flows would need to sustain roughly $100 million per day over the coming days and weeks for this breakout to stick.” That pace of buying, they say, would be necessary to maintain upward price pressure.
Grayscale emerged as the largest cryptocurrency investment vehicle last year after accumulating more than $6 billion from investors, helping to concentrate demand for bitcoin. JPMorgan cautioned that if bitcoin fails to reclaim the $40,000 threshold, trend-following traders could extend last week’s correction.
This is not the first time Grayscale’s inflows have been credited with supporting bitcoin’s price. JPMorgan noted a similar pattern in November, when the cryptocurrency struggled to break above $20,000; institutional flows into Grayscale’s trust helped amplify the subsequent rally.
Despite recent volatility, bitcoin is enjoying its strongest year-to-date performance. The coin began 2020 trading near $7,000 and has appreciated roughly 500% over the past year to reach its current all-time high around $41,900.
Some market participants expect the rally to continue into the second half of 2021. For example, Pantera Capital has projected that bitcoin could reach $115,000 by August — a more than 300% increase from recent levels — though such forecasts vary widely and depend on macro, regulatory, and institutional demand factors.