- Bitwise has reiterated its bullish forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the year.
- The firm says several of its December 2024 predictions for 2025 remain on track.
- Bitwise is less confident about Ethereum and Solana, which have underperformed so far this year.
At the midpoint of 2025, digital asset manager Bitwise reiterated its optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, maintaining a year-end target of $200,000. The firm points to rising institutional demand and a supportive regulatory environment as primary drivers behind this view.
By contrast, Bitwise expressed greater uncertainty around Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), both of which have lagged in performance year-to-date.
In a client note published Tuesday, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen revisited the firm’s 2025 forecasts, providing a balanced update on crypto market dynamics through the first half of the year.
Bitcoin remains resilient while ETH and SOL trail
“It’s been a mixed year for crypto asset prices,” Hougan and Rasmussen wrote, underscoring divergent trends across major tokens.
“Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $112,000 in May thanks to strong ETF flows, growing demand from bitcoin treasury companies, and the creation of a US strategic bitcoin reserve.”
Those Bitcoin gains stand in sharp contrast to Ethereum and Solana, both of which are down on a year-to-date basis. Bitwise attributes this divergence to broader macroeconomic risks and uneven investor appetite across different crypto sectors.
Despite the uneven starts, Bitwise remains constructive on the second half of the year. “We’re holding firm to our BTC $200k prediction, as there is simply too much institutional demand for BTC to keep prices flat for long,” Hougan said.
The firm is more cautious on ETH and SOL but notes potential upside catalysts — including ETF approvals, increased interest in stablecoins, and the possibility of Ethereum and Solana treasury companies emerging — that could improve prospects for those protocols.
Bitwise’s 2025 crypto forecasts: progress and misses
Bitwise reports that several of its predictions from December 2024 remain plausible or are already unfolding. The firm’s expectation that Bitcoin ETF inflows would exceed last year’s $35 billion is still achievable, particularly as larger wealth platforms expand access to these products.
Two of Bitwise’s regulatory predictions have materialized: the U.S. Department of Labor removed restrictions on crypto investments in 401(k) plans, and both Coinbase and what was formerly MicroStrategy secured spots in major indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100), increasing crypto exposure through passive index-tracking funds.
The firm also says its forecast that a wave of crypto-related IPOs would hit U.S. markets in 2025 is playing out faster than expected. It now regards the likelihood that at least five crypto unicorns will go public as high, citing prospective listings from firms such as Circle, Webull, and eToro as examples driving an acceleration in initial public offerings.
Not every projection is on target. Bitwise conceded that an anticipated surge in memecoins—especially AI-generated tokens—never gained sustained traction. The memecoin rally faded in the first quarter, with politically themed tokens and several high-profile themed coins collapsing quickly.
Other specific forecasts have become less probable within the 2025 window. Bitwise’s prior call that Coinbase would overtake Charles Schwab in market capitalization and reach a $700 share price now appears unlikely for this year. Similarly, the firm’s prediction that the number of countries holding Bitcoin in official reserves would double—from nine to 18—looks ambitious, though recent confirmations from the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have nudged that count upward.
Overall, Bitwise’s midyear assessment paints a nuanced picture: Bitcoin’s momentum and institutional tailwinds support a bullish case, while performance and uncertainty in other major networks suggest a more cautious stance. The remainder of 2025 will likely hinge on ETF flows, regulatory developments, and whether alternative tokens can regain investor interest.