“Sell in May and go away” is a well-known adage in financial markets. Renowned analyst Merlijn The Trader has highlighted a historical pattern that could spell further pain for Bitcoin (BTC) this year.
His projected targets are worrying: in a worst-case scenario, BTC could collapse as low as $33,000.
Could Bitcoin Drop Another 60%?
After Bitcoin was rejected near $82,000 earlier this week and corrected to a 15-day low around $78,000, bearish sentiment in crypto surged. Several analysts have outlined scenarios in which BTC could fall further. One of the most vocal bears, Merlijn The Trader, pointed out that Bitcoin has historically underperformed during midterm election years, including this one.
Reviewing past cycles, Merlijn noted that Bitcoin fell roughly 61% in 2014, 65% in 2018, and 66% in 2022. He summarized the pattern bluntly: “Three cycles. Three dumps. Zero exceptions.” If the same trend repeats in the current midterm year, his analysis implies a potential drop to about $33,000.
There are some potentially bullish developments—such as progress on the CLARITY Act and reported diplomatic or commercial dealings between the US and China—that could support prices. Still, Merlijn emphasized the consistency of the calendar-based pattern, arguing that history has been reliable in this specific context.
The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history.
Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect.
Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time.2014: Sell in May. -61%.
2018: Sell in May. -65%.
2022: Sell in May. -66%.Three cycles. Three dumps. Zero exceptions.
2026… pic.twitter.com/jErVlpY4BZ
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) May 17, 2026
A Less Severe Outcome: $45,000 to $59,000
Merlijn also discussed an alternative scenario based on a different historical pattern: the 2021 price cycle. In that episode, Bitcoin followed a sequence of moves that culminated in a significant crash. He broke that cycle into six phases and suggested Bitcoin may currently be in the Accumulation phase (step 4).
Under this thesis, another decline is possible but less extreme. Merlijn’s target range for this path sits between $45,000 and $59,000. The crucial factor is the $78,000 support level, which is being tested now. If Bitcoin loses that support, the path toward the lower targets becomes more likely.
Conversely, if BTC holds above $78,000, the Accumulation phase could be bypassed and a renewed rally might occur sooner than expected. In short, the market’s near-term direction hinges heavily on whether that key level holds.
Investors should weigh historical patterns alongside current fundamentals and risk management practices. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and market conditions can change rapidly.