The leading cryptocurrency has made several attempts in recent days to reclaim the psychologically important $80,000 level but has been met with resistance each time.
Although prices are in the red today, a well-known analyst has pointed to a rare pattern that historically precedes significant rallies. The central question now is whether this setup will repeat and fuel a major upswing or whether bearish momentum will remain dominant.
Double- or Triple-Digit Rally on the Way?
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen about 2% over the past 24 hours and is trading near $76,200. A few hours earlier, analyst Ali Martinez observed that the asset appears to have formed a “Morning Star” pattern on the monthly chart. This candlestick formation is commonly interpreted as a sign that sellers have exhausted themselves and buyers are beginning to take control.
“This three-period formation represents the transition from fear to indecision, and finally, to aggressive conviction,” he noted.
Martinez pointed out that over the last three years Bitcoin printed three Morning Star patterns on higher timeframes, each followed by significant rallies: roughly a 34% rise in 2023, a 212% surge in spring 2024, and another near-34% gain later that year. He argued that as long as price remains above the “star” candlestick low around $73,000, the structural bias remains to the upside.
Another prominent voice, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, has offered an optimistic projection as well. Hayes suggested BTC could climb to $125,000 by the end of 2026, citing the possibility that escalating global tensions may force governments to increase money printing to fund spending. In his view, a weaker fiat environment could drive investors toward scarce assets such as Bitcoin, creating conditions for a sustained rally.
Hayes also highlighted several other potential catalysts for a resurgence, including credit deflation driven by artificial intelligence, shifts in Federal Reserve policy, and evolving expectations for how U.S. banks might manage mounting national debt.
Is the Bottom Yet to Come?
Crypto X has been full of bold forecasts that outpace even Hayes’ outlook. But not everyone is convinced a major rally is imminent. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently criticized overly optimistic predictions—suggesting some commentators are indulging unrealistic expectations.
Other market participants offered mixed views. Carl Moon predicted a short-term spike toward $81,000 followed by a “liquidity flush” down to the $70,000–$72,000 range. Rekt Fencer warned that Bitcoin may not have found its bottom yet and suggested the possibility of a deeper decline, even below $40,000 at some point in 2026.
With competing narratives and a wide range of potential outcomes, market participants remain divided. The presence of a rare Morning Star formation on the monthly chart gives bulls a technical argument for higher prices if support near $73,000 holds, while skeptics point to macroeconomic risks and liquidity dynamics that could still drive price lower. As always, traders and investors will be watching key support and resistance levels closely as new data and global events unfold.