Bitcoin is trading at $78.3k as the first weekend of May begins. It has achieved something it has not managed since the cycle peak: closing above the 100-day moving average and breaking out of a long-term descending channel that had contained the broader bearish trend.
This advance is accompanied by strong daily RSI readings, a successful retest of the breakout level on the 4-hour chart, and an on-chain supply picture that helps explain why the path forward grows more challenging — and potentially more rewarding — from here.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, BTC is pushing toward the upper boundary of a mid-term ascending channel after reclaiming the 100-day moving average, which now sits near the $72k zone. The RSI is climbing toward 70, signaling sustained bullish momentum while still leaving room for additional upside because the market is not yet in an overbought state.
The immediate test remains the $80k supply zone, which has capped price advances on every approach since February. A clean daily close above that area would open the door toward the $90k level, with the 200-day moving average forming potential resistance near $85k. On the downside, the lower edge of the current trading zone around $75k is now the first support level to protect, with the 100-day moving average just below that.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart displays a textbook post-breakout structure. Price cleared the $75k level, pulled back to retest it — as marked on the chart — and then resumed upward momentum toward the $79k region. The 4-hour RSI has risen above 60, reflecting a clear bullish shift in short-term momentum. The retest lends credibility to the breakout and suggests the move has conviction.
The channel’s upper boundary and the $80k psychological level converge as the immediate ceiling. A 4-hour close above recent highs near $79.5k, with the RSI still outside extreme overbought territory, would keep the bullish structure intact and set a target for the $82k–$84k supply zone above. If a pullback occurs, the $75k area would likely remain the critical support on this timeframe.
On-Chain Analysis
About 64.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently in profit, indicating the recovery since February has made meaningful headway. The remaining 35.8% still sits underwater, however, and that group tells the more critical story. Much of the loss-making supply was acquired between $80k and $125k during the late 2025 distribution phase, so BTC is now re-entering a price range where many holders approach breakeven and the incentive to sell increases.
Historically, when 75–80% of supply is in profit, overhead correction pressure tends to ease materially and momentum can sustain higher prices. The present 64.2% reading shows that threshold has not yet been reached, which helps explain why the $80k–$90k band has proved a persistent ceiling.
Each push higher turns more underwater holders into profitable positions, creating potential profit-taking pressure, but it also shrinks the pool of forced sellers. If price can clear $80k, the share of supply in profit could accelerate toward levels that, in past cycles, preceded the next significant leg up.