Bitcoin (BTC) has risen nearly 20% this month, but despite the bullish momentum, the risk of rejection at major overhead resistance levels remains significant.
CryptoQuant’s latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin must reclaim and hold $88,880 before the market can confidently confirm a sustainable bottom.
Trapped Buyers Await
CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin’s current price, roughly $80,000, still sits below several important realized price levels tied to holders who remain underwater. Those cohorts create meaningful overhead resistance as they approach their break-even points and may sell if prices recover.
The first key level is $88,880, representing holders who bought three to six months ago. The next notable barrier is $93,450, tied to the 12-to-18-month cohort. The largest resistance zone is at $111,850, linked to the six-to-12-month group — about 29% above the current spot price.
These realized price levels act as potential exit points for investors holding unrealized losses. CryptoQuant explains that for a market bottom to be validated, Bitcoin needs to move above $88,880 and hold that level, rather than only briefly spiking higher before falling back.
Until that threshold is cleared, rallies into the $85,000–$88,000 range are likely to encounter selling pressure from buyers who entered between November 2025 and February 2026.
Analyst Ali Martinez has echoed similar concerns, observing that Bitcoin’s current structure resembles the 2022 bear market bottom formation. He pointed to the period in August and September 2022 when Bitcoin briefly recovered to around $25,000 before experiencing another steep decline that pushed it below $16,000.
Following that pattern, Martinez suggested Bitcoin might face another rejection near $80,000–$82,000, and could potentially fall below $55,000 if the market repeats that trajectory. He also highlighted persistent sell walls between $79,000 and $80,000, an area where the asset has been repeatedly rejected in recent weeks.
Crypto Market Positioning
Derivatives data also underscores the cautious sentiment across the market. Bitunix analysts pointed to liquidity absorption around the $80,000 region as a focal point. In comments to CryptoPotato, they noted that open interest dropped 5.13% over the past 24 hours.
Funding rates remained negative overall during the past week, indicating continued bearish positioning, although the size of those negative readings has begun to narrow. This suggests overheated leverage conditions are cooling while bearish hedging activity is easing somewhat. Even so, market positioning remains conservative.