The leading cryptocurrency, which showed strength at the end of April and the start of May, has dropped about 5% over the past week, raising concerns that the bear market’s low may not yet be behind us.
One well-known analyst says the asset’s next major move—either a strong rally or a sharp decline—depends on whether it can hold a key support level.
Big Rally or Major Drop?
Ali Martinez, an analyst who regularly shares BTC forecasts based on technical indicators and on-chain data, highlighted the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) bands and suggested that a sustained valuation above $72,960 could pave the way for a run toward roughly $95,000.
Conversely, Martinez warned that breaking below that critical zone may trigger a steep pullback to just under $55,000, roughly a 30% drop from current levels.
In a separate update, Martinez noted BTC’s MVRV ratio has fallen below its 180-day simple moving average. While some models treat that as a cooling phase, he described the development as “a shift toward a high-conviction accumulation zone.”
“When the MVRV ratio sits below the 180-day moving average, it means the market is effectively flushing out premium and pricing in a deep discount. Historically, these specific periods mark the exact foundation on which long-term smart money builds its positions. As long as the ratio consolidates under this 180-day line, the short-term trend will remain compressed, offering a highly strategic accumulation window,” he explained.
On-chain activity from large holders appears to back a bullish narrative. Recent reporting showed the number of addresses holding at least 100 BTC rose to 20,229, up about 11% from 18,191 wallets recorded in May 2025. That accumulation by large players signals confidence and could help set the stage for a future price surge. The presence of sizable holders accumulating may also influence retail participants to re-enter the market.
Could History Repeat Itself?
Not everyone is optimistic. Some analysts predict further downside for BTC in the near term. X user Chiefy argued the market is now traversing a pivot zone similar to the one seen during the 2022 crash. At that time many characterized the fall as a “healthy correction,” and if the same dynamics are repeating, BTC could decline to around $45,000 in coming months.
Adding to bearish pressure, the quantity of coins held on exchanges has been rising. Data from CryptoQuant shows nearly 2.7 million BTC currently sitting on centralized platforms, approaching a recent monthly high. An increase in exchange balances often indicates more immediate selling availability, as investors move assets off self-custody and onto exchanges.
As the market evaluates these conflicting signals—accumulation by large holders versus rising exchange balances—traders and investors will watch the $72,960 support zone closely. Holding that line could open the path to higher prices, while a decisive break may accelerate downside risk.