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Avalanche’s native token has been experiencing a clear bearish trend over recent months.
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Selling pressure is likely to continue before and after the latest scheduled token unlock.
Avalanche (AVAX) fell under significant pressure ahead of a token unlock event on Friday. The token traded near $10 on Friday, slightly above this week’s low of $9.78. This represents a decline of more than 37% from July’s highs.
AVAX token unlocks
Avalanche, positioned as an Ethereum alternative, attracted attention because developers planned to release a large allocation of tokens to the market. Specifically, more than 9.7 million AVAX were scheduled to unlock, with an estimated value exceeding $95 million—roughly 2% of the network’s supply.
Token unlocks are common in the cryptocurrency sector and follow each network’s tokenomics and vesting schedules. For Avalanche, vesting schedules extend into July 2030.
According to TokenUnlocks data, about 380 million AVAX are currently circulating while 339 million remain locked. That places the market capitalization of circulating AVAX around $3.45 billion, with a fully diluted valuation above $7.2 billion. Holders should therefore expect further dilution as additional tokens unlock over time.
A further challenge for Avalanche is flattening ecosystem growth. DeFi Llama reports that the Avalanche ecosystem’s total value locked (TVL) stands at roughly $151 million in token terms, down from peak levels that exceeded $362 million in tokens.
Measured in dollars, Avalanche’s TVL is approximately $1 billion, with leading decentralized applications including Wonderland, AAVE, Benqi, GMX, and Trader Joe contributing the bulk of locked capital.
Avalanche price outlook
On the 4-hour chart, AVAX has been in a pronounced downtrend over recent months. Price recently slipped below a key support level at $12.10, which was the low on June 18.
Avalanche has also moved beneath its 50-day moving average and is trading near the swing low from June 10. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have fallen into oversold territory.
Given these technical signs, the near-term outlook remains bearish. The next notable psychological support to monitor is around $8. A cautious risk management approach would place a stop-loss near $10.50 for short-term trades.
How to buy Avalanche
If you are considering purchasing AVAX, use a reputable exchange or brokerage that lists the token, verify fees and supported payment methods, and secure your holdings using a hardware wallet or other secure custody solutions. Always perform your own research and only invest funds you can afford to risk.